Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid January 23, 2024 Issued By: NWS Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated February 20, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona DROUGHT CONDITIONS HEADLINE/KEY MESSAGE Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Santa Cruz County, south central Pima, southwest and eastern Cochise, southeast Graham County and southern Greenlee County. D2 (Severe Drought): Adjacent sections of southern and eastern Pima, Pinal and Graham counties, the remainder of Cochise and Greenlee counties. D1 (Moderate Drought)/D0 Abnormally Dry: The rest of southeast Arizona not under D2 or D3. The area has seen several widespread rain events over the past 30 days. One before Christmas, one in early January and then this past weekend. Thus most of southeast Arizona is above normal over the past 30 days. However, there are isolated areas that are slightly below normal in the past 30 days. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending January 21, 2024 Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending January 21, 2024 Average temperatures over the past 30 days were mostly 1° to 3° below normal across most of southeast Arizona. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow conditions in Southeastern Arizona have declined since last month. The Upper Gila River Basin and San Pedro River Basin no longer have river reaches at normal or above normal. Both basins are now below normal to much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have improved thanks to the widespread rain but are still on the dry side across the area. Fire Hazard Impacts Recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have allowed fuel moistures to rise to near or above average for this time of year, reducing the threat of rapidly spreading grass fires on all but the windiest days. However, additional precipitation is needed over the next month to maintain the higher fuel moisture levels. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid January 21, 2024 Streamflow conditions in Southeastern Arizona have declined since last month. The Upper Gila River Basin and San Pedro River Basin no longer have river reaches at normal or above normal. Both basins are now below normal to much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to be mostly dry across southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid January 21, 2024 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending January 20, 2024 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The second of two storm systems will move across southeast Arizona today and Wednesday then dry conditions to close out the month of January. The map to the right shows total precipitation for Monday through Wednesday. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Monday January 22 to Saturday January 28 Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid January to March 2024 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The Climate Prediction center outlook for February through April for southeast Arizona shows equal odds for either above, near or below normal seasonal mean temperatures & seasonal total precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released January 18, 2024 valid for January 18 to April 30, 2024 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are likely to persist into Spring 2024 across most of southeast Arizona. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.