Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid February 22, 2024 Issued By: NWS Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated March 26, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona DROUGHT CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Eastern Cochise County, far southeast Graham County and far southern Greenlee County. D2 (Severe Drought): Remainder of Greenlee County, adjacent sections of eastern Graham County, most of the remainder of Cochise County, all of Santa Cruz County, and southern Pima County. D1 (Moderate Drought)/D0 Abnormally Dry: The remainder of southeast Arizona not under D2 or D3. The area has seen several widespread precipitation events over the past 30 days. Thus most of southeast Arizona is above normal over the past 30 days. The exception is portions of Graham and Greenlee counties which has seen below normal precipitation in the past 30 days. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending February 21, 2024 Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending February 21, 2024 Average temperatures over the past 30 days generally ranged from 1° below normal to 1° above normal across most of southeast Arizona. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow conditions in Southeastern Arizona have improved for some basins since last month. The Upper Gila River Basin and Lower San Pedro River Basin have river reaches at normal or above normal. However, the Upper San Pedro Basin remains at much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have improved thanks to the widespread rain but are still on the dry side across the area. Fire Hazard Impacts Abundant winter precipitation and cooler temperatures have pushed fuel moisture levels for all classes to near period of record highs. Thus the threat for wildfires is very low and reduced to just a threat of a few smaller grass fires on the windiest and driest days. Potential impending greenup over the next month will continue to moderate the fire threat as well as any additional precipitation. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid February 21, 2024 Streamflow conditions in Southeastern Arizona have improved for some basins since last month. The Upper Gila River Basin and Lower San Pedro River Basin have river reaches at normal or above normal. However, the Upper San Pedro Basin remains at much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values are near normal for this time of the year across southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid February 21, 2024 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending February 17, 2024 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The map to the right shows total precipitation for the last week of February. A weather system will move across the area during first half of next week with the best chances of precipitation occurring late on Monday (26th) and through most of Tuesday (27th). Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Thursday February 22 to Thursday February 29 Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid March to May 2024 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The Climate Prediction center outlook for March through May for southeast Arizona shows equal odds for either above, near or below normal seasonal mean temperatures & seasonal total precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released February 15, 2024 valid for February 15 to May 31, 2024 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are likely to persist into late Spring across most of southeast Arizona. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.