Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid March 28, 2024 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated April 23, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Extreme drought conditions remain in far eastern Cochise county near the New Mexico border Elsewhere across southeast Arizona drought conditions are slowly improving from the west to east. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Eastern Cochise County, far southeast Graham County and far southern Greenlee County. D2 (Severe Drought): Adjacent sections of Greenlee, Graham & Cochise counties or the western extent extends from Clifton in Greenlee county to Sierra Vista in Cochise county D1 (Moderate Drought): The remainder of Greenlee, Graham & Cochise counties plus most of Santa Cruz county & far southeast Pima county D0: (Abnormally Dry): Most of southeast Pinal county and eastern half of Pima county. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending March 27, 2024 The area has seen several precipitation events over the past 30 days. However there are portions of southeast Arizona, like western Pima county, parts of Santa Cruz, Cochise & Graham counties that have recorded below normal precipitation over the past 30 days. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending March 27, 2024 Average temperatures over the past 30 days have been below normal for southeast Arizona. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Majority of the river basins in Southeastern Arizona have normal streamflow conditions. With the exception of the Upper San Pedro River Basin remaining at much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have improved thanks to the widespread rain but are still on the dry side across the area. Fire Hazard Impacts Abundant winter precipitation and cooler temperatures have pushed fuel moisture levels for all classes to near period of record highs. Thus the threat for wildfires is very low and reduced to just a threat of a few smaller grass fires on the windiest and driest days. Potential impending greenup over the next month will continue to moderate the fire threat as well as any additional precipitation. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid March 27, 2024 Majority of the river basins in Southeastern Arizona have normal streamflow conditions. With the exception of the Upper San Pedro River Basin remaining at much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values are near normal for this time of the year across southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid March 27, 2024 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending March 23, 2024 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Thursday March 28 to Thursday April 3 A late season winter storm will bring widespread valley rain and mountain snow to southeast Arizona on Easter Sunday (May 31st) and on April 1st. A quarter (0.25”) to three-quarters (0.75”) of an inch with locally higher amounts are possible over these two days. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid April to June 2024 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The Climate Prediction center outlook for April through June for southeast Arizona shows equal odds for either above, near or below normal seasonal mean temperatures & seasonal total precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released March 21, 2024 valid for March 21 to June 30, 2024 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions are likely to persist into early Summer across most of southeast Arizona. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.