Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid April 27, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by May 20, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions across most of Cochise county; the southern parts of Greenlee county; the southeast parts of Graham county; and eastern portions of Santa Cruz county. The last time parts of southeast Arizona was in Exceptional drought (D4) was Fall of 2020 (October) to Summer of 2021 (August). The remainder of southeast Arizona under either Extreme (D3) or Severe (D2) drought conditions 1 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Most of Cochise county; the southern parts of Greenlee county; the southeast parts of Graham county; and eastern portions of Santa Cruz county. D3 (Extreme Drought): The remainder of Greenlee, Graham, Cochise and Santa Cruz counties; far northern & western portions of southeast Pinal county; western and central Pima county. D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Pima and Pinal counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): No areas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for southeast Arizona Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Two class degradation occurred across the central and southern portions of Cochise county. One class degradation across the remainder of Cochise county; southern portions of Graham & Greenlee counties; central Pima county and parts of southeast Pinal county. No Change: The remainder of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: No improvement was observed. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending April 27, 2025 An early April weather system brought very light precipitation to the area, otherwise it has been very dry over the past 30 days. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending April 26, 2025 Above normal temperatures for most of southeast Arizona since late March. The exception is cooler than normal temperatures (circle) across northeast Cochise county, far southern Greenlee county & far southeast Graham county. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Some river basins in Southeastern Arizona continue to have below to much below normal streamflow conditions. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to be below normal due as dry conditions continue across the area. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Fire Danger has been Very High due to the live fuel moistures at record lows and dead fuel moistures running below than normal. The rapid warming of temperatures and breezy periods has increased fuels drying more than usual and increasing the overall fire danger. Above normal fire potential expected to continue through June. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid April 26, 2025 Conditions in the Upper San Pedro River and Upper Gila River continue to be at below to much below normal streamflow. The Santa Cruz River conditions remain near normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to decline and be below normal for this time of the year in southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid April 26, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending April 12, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Areas of above normal fire potential will be evident across Arizona in May (left map). Above normal fire potential will persist across Southeast Arizona and expanding into the Four Corners Region (right map). Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following months: Left: May; Right: June National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued April 1, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Sunday April 27, 2025 to Sunday May 4, 2025 No precipitation is expected for the next 7 days. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook ?? Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid May 1, 2025 to July 31, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for May 1 to July 31 leans toward above normal, 50% to 60% chance across the entire area. The precipitation outlook for May 1 to July 31 favors above normal precipitation, 30% to 40% chance across most of the area. The exception is equal chances (EC) across western Pima county. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released April 17, 2025 valid for April 17, 2025 to July 31, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions will persist across southeast Arizona through the end of July. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.