Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid May 23, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by June 24, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions across most of Cochise county; the southern parts of Greenlee county; the southeast parts of Graham county; and eastern portions of Santa Cruz county. The remainder of southeast Arizona is under Extreme (D3) drought conditions expect for a pocket of Severe (D2) drought conditions across northeast Pima county & southeast Pinal county. 1 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Most of Cochise county; the southern parts of Greenlee county; the southeast parts of Graham county; and eastern portions of Santa Cruz county. D3 (Extreme Drought): The remainder of Greenlee, Graham, Cochise and Santa Cruz counties; and most of Pinal and Pima counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Pocket of northeast Pima county and southeast Pinal counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): No areas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for southeast Arizona One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No deterioration was observed. No Change: All of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: No improvement was observed. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending May 23, 2025 An early May weather system brought rainfall to parts of southeast Arizona. Rainfall amounts were mostly less than 0.25” with isolated spots in Pima and Pinal county recording up to 0.50”. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending May 22, 2025 The past 30 days has generally be cooler than normal for most of southeast Arizona. The exception would be slightly above normal temperatures across Santa Cruz county and far southeast Cochise county. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Some river basins in Southeastern Arizona continue to have below to much below normal streamflow conditions. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to be well below normal due as dry conditions continue across the area. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Dead and live fuel moistures have been near levels typically seen in June. This has led to Very High Fire Danger with pockets of Extreme Fire Danger across Southeast Arizona. Multiple fire starts with two large fires have been observed in May due to these conditions. The dry and hot conditions will continue through June where the fire potential being will above normal. Fire season typically peaks before monsoonal moisture moves into the area by the end of the month and into July. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid May 22, 2025 Conditions in the Upper San Pedro River and Upper Gila River continue to be at below to much below normal streamflow. The Santa Cruz River conditions remain near normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values are well below normal for this time of the year in southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid May 22, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending May 17, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts ?? Areas of above normal fire potential will be evident across Arizona in June (left map). Normal fire potential expected in July (right map). Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following months: Left: June; Right: July National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued May 1, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday May 23, 2025 to Friday May 30, 2025 No precipitation is expected for the next 7 days. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook ?? Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid June 1, 2025 to August 31, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for June 1 to August 31 leans toward above normal, 40% to 50% chance across the entire area. The precipitation outlook for June 1 to August 31 favors above normal precipitation, 30% to 40% chance for Pinal, Pima & Santa Cruz counties plus the western parts of Graham & Cochise counties. The remainder Graham & Cochise counties plus Greenlee county has equal chances (EC) for either below, near, or above normal precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released May 15, 2025 valid for May 15, 2025 to August 31, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions will persist across southeast Arizona through the end of August. However, monsoon precipitation is the wild card for any drought improvements during the summer thunderstorm season. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.