Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid June 27, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by July 22, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions in southern Greenlee county and far eastern portions of Cochise county. The remainder of southeast Arizona is under Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought conditions Drought may improve during July thanks to the onset of the Monsoon. 1 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Southern Greenlee county & far eastern parts of Cochise county (east of a San Simon to Douglas line). D3 (Extreme Drought): The remainder of Greenlee and Cochise counties; all of Graham and Santa Cruz counties; western Pima county and parts of southeast Pinal and eastern Pima counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Central Pima county; parts of southeast Pinal and eastern Pima counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): No areas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for southeast Arizona One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No deterioration was observed. No Change: All of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: No improvement was observed. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending June 26, 2025 Widespread rain occurred on June 1st. Totals ranged from between 0.10” & 0.80” with localized amount up to 1.50”. Isolated moderate rainfall from thunderstorms after June 23rd mainly near the Arizona/New Mexico border. Overall most of the area has recorded above normal rainfall during June. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending June 26, 2025 The past 30 days has been warmer than normal for most of southeast Arizona. The exception would be slightly below normal temperatures across northeast Cochise county and far southern Greenlee county. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Some river basins in Southeastern Arizona continue to have below to much below normal streamflow conditions. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to be well below normal due as dry conditions continue across the area. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Fire season will be peaking during the first week of July as monsoonal moisture moves into the area. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid June 26, 2025 Conditions in the Upper San Pedro River and Upper Gila River continue to be at below to much below normal streamflow. The Santa Cruz River conditions remain near normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values are well below normal for this time of the year in southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid June 25, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending June 15, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected in July & August. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following months: Left: July; Right: August National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued June 1, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday June 27, 2025 to Friday July 4, 2025 Increase in monsoonal moisture next week will lead to above normal rainfall during the 7-day period for most of southeast Arizona. There will be localized heavy rain from stronger thunderstorms. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for July 1 to September 30 leans toward above normal, 40% to 60% chance across the entire area. No significant climate signal stands out for the precipitation outlook from July 1 to September 30. Thus there are equal chances for either below-, near- and above-normal seasonal precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released June 18, 2025 valid for June 19, 2025 to September 30, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions have the potential to improve thanks to precipitation during the 2025 Monsoon. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.