Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid July 26, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by August 25, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions is across most of Greenlee county and the far eastern portions of Cochise county. The remainder of southeast Arizona is under Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought conditions Drought conditions may improve during August thanks to Monsoon rainfall. 1 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Most of Greenlee county and eastern Cochise county (east of a San Simon to Douglas line). D3 (Extreme Drought): The remainder of Greenlee county; majority of Graham and Santa Cruz counties; portions of Cochise, Pinal and Pima counties. D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Pima, Pinal, Graham, Cochise & Santa Cruz counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): No areas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for southeast Arizona One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No deterioration was observed. No Change: All of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: Portions of Greenlee, Graham, Pima, Santa Cruz & Cochise counties. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending July 25, 2025 Monsoon rainfall has been sporadic across southeast Arizona. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending July 24, 2025 The past 30 days has been warmer than normal for most of southeast Arizona. The exception would be slightly below normal temperatures across southeast Pinal county; western and northeast Cochise county. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Some river basins in Southeastern Arizona continue to have below to much below normal streamflow conditions. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have improved in some areas but still remain well below normal across most of southeast Arizona. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected over the next month. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid July 24, 2025 Conditions in the Upper San Pedro River and Upper Gila River continue to be at below to much below normal streamflow. The Santa Cruz River conditions remain near normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have improved across portions of southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid July 24, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending July 19, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected in August & September. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following months: Left: August; Right: September National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued July 1, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday July 25, 2025 to Friday August 1, 2025 Monsoonal moisture returns next week that will lead to above normal rainfall during the 7-day period for portions of southeast Arizona. There will be localized heavy rain from stronger thunderstorms. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid August 1, 2025 to October 31, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for August 1 to October 31 leans toward above normal, 40% to 60% chance across the area. No significant climate signal stands out for the precipitation outlook from August 1 to October 31. Thus there are equal chances for either below-, near- and above-normal seasonal precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released June 17, 2025 valid for July 17, 2025 to October 31, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions have the potential to improve thanks to precipitation during the 2025 Monsoon. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.