Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid September 22, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by October 19, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions is across most of Greenlee county and southeast portions of Cochise county. The remainder of southeast Arizona is under Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought conditions 1 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Most of Greenlee county and southeast Cochise county (east of a Portal to Douglas line). D3 (Extreme Drought): The remainder of Greenlee county; majority of Graham and Santa Cruz counties; portions of Cochise, Pinal and Pima counties. D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Pima, Pinal, Graham, Cochise & Santa Cruz counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): No areas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for southeast Arizona One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No deterioration was observed. No Change: Majority of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: 1-category improvement for a few areas in Graham and Cochise counties. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending September 22, 2025 Monsoon rainfall has been sporadic across southeast Arizona during the past month. Percentage of normal ranges widely from less than 25% to over 300%. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending September 21, 2025 The past 30 days has been warmer than normal across most of southeast Arizona with the largest departures above normal occurring across central Pima county. Western Pima county is the exception with that area being below normal during the past 30 days. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Near normal streamflow conditions exist for most of the river basins. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have decreased a bit across southeast Arizona. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected over the next month. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Near normal streamflow conditions exist across most the southeast Arizona. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid September 21, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have decreased a bit across portions of southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid September 21, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending September 20, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected in October & November. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following months: Left: October; Right: November National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued September 1, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Monday September 22, 2025 to Monday September 29, 2025 Low-grade monsoon activity through Wednesday, September 24th, then an uptick in daily thunderstorm activity from Thursday, September 25th, through Saturday, September 27th as a slow moving upper low will be impacting the area. There will be a daily risk for isolated heavy rainfall Thursday through Saturday. WPC has portions of SE Arizona under a slight risk (15%) of Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for October 1 to December 31 leans toward above normal, 40% to 70% chance across the area. The precipitation outlook from October 1 to December 31 leans toward below normal, 33% to 50% chance across the area. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released September 18, 2025 valid for September 18, 2025 to December 31, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions will persist through the end of the 2025 calendar year. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.