Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid October 19, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by November 23, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. A widespread multi-day rain event from October 11th through 13th brought some drought relief to the area. Exceptional (D4) drought conditions still remains across far southeast Cochise county. Extreme (D3) drought conditions remain near the New Mexico border and across western Pima county. 1 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Far southeast Cochise county (east of a Portal to Douglas line). D3 (Extreme Drought): Greenlee county; northern Graham county; eastern Cochise county east of a Bowie to Douglas line; western Pima county & southern Pima county D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Cochise county and Graham county (except near Klondike); most Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Tucson/Sierra Vista areas, & eastern Santa Cruz county. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for southeast Arizona One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No deterioration was observed. No Change: Most of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: 1-category improvement for scattered areas in all six counties across southeast Arizona. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending October 19, 2025 Moisture from two tropical storms, Priscilla & Raymond, interacted with a Pacific weather system to bring widespread rain across southeast Arizona from October 11th to 13th. Rainfall totals for this event ranged widely from 0.25” to 4”. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending October 18, 2025 The past 30 days has been warmer than normal across most of southeast Arizona. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Normal to much above-normal streamflow conditions exist for most of the river basins. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have increased across southeast Arizona. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected over the next month. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Thanks to a widespread multi-day rainfall event from October 11th through 13th, hydrologic conditions improved greatly across the area with most basin streamflows being normal to much above normal. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid October 18, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have increased across southeast Arizona thanks to the multi-day rainfall event from October 11th through 13th. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid October 18, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending October 11, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected in November & December. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following months: Left: November; Right: December National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued October 1, 2025 A weak weather system moving through Arizona Tuesday night into Wednesday may bring a few light showers (10%-20% chance) to the area. Otherwise no significant rain is expected over the next 7 days. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Sunday October 19, 2025 to Sunday October 26, 2025 Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for November 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026 leans toward above normal, 40% to 60% chance across the area. The precipitation outlook from November 1, 2025 to January 31, 2026 leans toward below normal, 33% to 50% chance across the area. La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through Winter 2025-2026, or through February 2026. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released October 16, 2025 valid for October 16, 2025 to January 31, 2026 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions will persist into meteorological winter. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.