Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid November, 20, 2023 Issued By: NWS Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 25, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona DROUGHT CONDITIONS HEADLINE/KEY MESSAGE Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Santa Cruz County, south central Pima, southwest and eastern Cochise, southeast Graham county and southern Greenlee county. D2 (Severe Drought): Adjacent sections of southern and eastern Pima, Pinal and Graham counties, the remainder of Cochise and Greenlee counties. D1 (Moderate Drought)/D0 Abnormally Dry: The rest of southeast Arizona not under D2 or D3. Precipitation has been below normal for most of southeast Arizona over the past 30 days. The exception are portions of eastern Pinal county, eastern Pima, northeast Cochise and western Graham county. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending November 19, 2023 Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending November 18, 2023 Average temperatures over the past 30 days were 1° to 4° above normal for most of southeast Arizona. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow across much of the area continues to be below to much below normal for this time of year. The San Pedro River Basin and portions of the Upper Gila River Basin are at less than 10th percentile for this time of year. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values are below the 5th percentile in most of southeast Arizona. Without additional rainfall, this could make some areas more susceptible to blowing dust. Fire Hazard Impacts Record heat and below normal precipitation has resulted in fuel dryness levels that are much drier than normal. As a result, the threat of grass fires on windier days is higher than normal for this time of year until significant precipitation occurs. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 18, 2023 Streamflow across much of the area continues to be below to much below normal for this time of the year. The San Pedro River Basin and portions of the Upper Gila River Basin are at less than the 10th percentile for this time of the year. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values are below the 5th percentile across southeast Arizona. This could make some areas more susceptible to blowing dust. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid November 18, 2023 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending November 11, 2023 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A weather system moving across the state Thursday and Friday will bring some light precipitation to portions of Graham and Greenlee counties. Otherwise the week ahead looks dry across the rest of southeast Arizona. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Monday November 20 to Sunday November 26 Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid December 2023 to February 2024 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The Climate Prediction center outlook for December through February for southeast Arizona shows equal odds for either above, near or below normal seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal total precipitation. The exception would be western Pima county where the outlook favors 34% to 37% chance for above normal seasonal total precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released November 16, 2023 valid for December 2023 to February 2024 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are likely to persist into early 2024 across most of southeast Arizona. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.