Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid November 28, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by December 22, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Rainfall from November 19th to 23rd brought another round of drought improvements to the area. The only area of Extreme (D3) drought conditions is across central Greenlee county. 1 Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): No areas. D3 (Extreme Drought): Central Greenlee county. D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Greenlee county; much of Graham county; eastern half of Cochise county; western half of Santa Cruz county and southern portions of Pima county. D1 (Moderate Drought): The remainder of Pinal, Pima, Santa Cruz, Cochise & Santa Cruz counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): A small area of far northeast Pinal county and northwest Graham county. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for southeast Arizona One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No deterioration was observed. No Change: Scattered areas across the six counties of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: 1-category improvement for all of Pinal county and portions of the other five counties across southeast Arizona. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending November 28, 2025 Precipitation over the past month mainly occurred during a five-day period, November 19th to 23rd. Most of the area recorded above normal precipitation during the past 30 days, although there are spots that recorded below normal precipitation. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending November 27, 2025 The past 30 days has been warmer than normal across southeast Arizona. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Stream flows were above normal across the central & lower portions of the Santa Cruz & San Pedro river basins and across central Pima county. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values were above normal from Tucson west. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected over the next month. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Stream flows were above normal across the central & lower portions of the Santa Cruz & San Pedro river basins and across central Pima county. Normal to below normal stream flows for the remaining basins of southeast Arizona. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 27, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Above normal soil moisture values exist from Tucson west while near normal soil moisture values exist east of Tucson. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid November 27, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending November 11, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Normal fire potential is expected in December & January. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following months: Left: December; Right: January National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued November 1, 2025 Dry conditions through Wednesday, December 3rd, then a weather system dropping in from the north will bring a chance (10% to 30%) for valley rain and mountain snow showers on Thursday, December 4th and Friday, December 5th. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday November 28, 2025 to Friday December 5, 2025 Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid December 1, 2025 to February 28, 2026 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for December 1, 2025 to February 28, 2026 leans toward above normal, 40% to 60% chance across the area. The precipitation outlook from December 1, 2025 to February 28, 2026 leans toward below normal, 33% to 40% chance across the area. La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through Winter 2025-2026, or through February 2026. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released November 20, 2025 valid for November 20, 2025 to February 28, 2026 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions will persist through meteorological winter, or through the end of February. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.