Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid December 30, 2023 Issued By: NWS Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated January 23, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona DROUGHT CONDITIONS HEADLINE/KEY MESSAGE Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Santa Cruz County, south central Pima, southwest and eastern Cochise, southeast Graham County and southern Greenlee County. D2 (Severe Drought): Adjacent sections of southern and eastern Pima, Pinal and Graham counties, the remainder of Cochise and Greenlee counties. D1 (Moderate Drought)/D0 Abnormally Dry: The rest of southeast Arizona not under D2 or D3. Widespread rains of 1” to 2” occurred before Christmas. Most of southeast Arizona is above normal since Thanksgiving. However, there are isolated areas that are slightly below normal in the past 30 days. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending December 29, 2023 Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending December 29, 2023 Average temperatures over the past 30 days were mostly 1° to 3° above normal across most of southeast Arizona. The exception was parts of Greenlee and northeast Cochise county which were below normal. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow in Southeastern Arizona has improved with some river basins at or above normal, including improvements in the Upper Gila River Basin. However, the Upper San Pedro River Basin has gone from below normal to much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have improved thanks to the widespread rain before Christmas but are still on the dry side across the area. Fire Hazard Impacts Recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have allowed fuel moistures to rise to near or above average for this time of year, reducing the threat of rapidly spreading grass fires on all but the windiest days. However, additional precipitation is needed over the next month to maintain the higher fuel moisture levels. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid December 24, 2023 Streamflow in Southeastern Arizona has improved with some river basins at or above normal, including improvements in the Upper Gila River Basin. However, the Upper San Pedro River Basin has gone from below normal to much below normal. Agricultural Impacts Thanks to the widespread rain before Christmas, soil moisture values have improved greatly and are in the 20th to 30th dry percentile across southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid December 29, 2023 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending December 23, 2023 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast 2024 will start off on a wet note as a pair of Pacific weather systems moves across the area. The first one is slated for New Years Day afternoon and evening into January 2nd and the second one January 4th & 5th. Snow levels will be lower with these systems down to around 6000 feet. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Saturday December 30 to Saturday January 6 Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid January to March 2024 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The Climate Prediction center outlook for January through March for southeast Arizona shows equal odds for either above, near or below normal seasonal mean temperatures & seasonal total precipitation. The exception would be western half of Pima county & portions of south-central Pinal county where the outlook favors 35% chance for above normal seasonal total precipitation. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released December 21, 2023 valid for January to March 2024 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are likely to persist into early Spring 2024 across most of southeast Arizona. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.