Widespread gusty winds combined with dry conditions will support elevated to critical fire weather concerns across eastern New Mexico and much of the southern High Plains today; Critical fire weather conditions are also forecast in Guam. Later this evening, an Atmospheric River event will produce moderate to locally heavy rainfall over central and southern California through Saturday. Read More >
Evaluating Aviation Workflows in Hazard Services: A Collaborative Effort Between the Aviation Weather Testbed and the Arctic Testbed and Proving Ground
In collaboration with the Aviation Weather Center’s (AWC) Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT), the Arctic Testbed and Proving Ground hosted a 5-day Forecaster Acceptance Test (FAT) for aviation hazard product generation in Hazard Services. This evaluation was a follow on to testing done last May in the AWT as part of the 2023 AWT Spring Experiment. Testing the updated code as well as new functionalities implemented after the AWT May experiment were the primary goals of this FAT.
AWT leads Austin Cross and Stephanie Avey, and AWC-CIRA scientists Amanda Terborg and Jared Schadler made the trek to snowy Anchorage in November (13th-16th) to assist with the FAT. In addition to AWC, representatives from the Honolulu Forecast Office and NOAA’s Global Systems Lab (GSL) were in attendance. While the primary focus of the testing was suitability and readiness for Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) operations, the presence of all three Met Watch Offices along with Hazard Services developers allowed for fruitful discussions about the future of aviation hazard product production utilizing Hazard Services (HS).
AWC, GSL, and AAWU staff discuss potential workflows for Graphical AIRMET production in Hazard Services. LtoR Darrel Kingfield (GSL), Jared Schadler (AWC/CIRA), Austin Cross (AWC), Stephanie Avey (AWC), Amanda Terborg (AWC/CIRA), and Nathan Eckstein (AAWU).
Testing of the HS software took place using both the Alaska Region Headquarters AWIPS (VRH) and the GSL AWIPS in the Cloud. Participants testing the software had a mix of experience using HS, and therefore provided a diverse perspective of feedback. Overall, forecasters were generally positive about HS and its potential, stating it is already proving better than the current production platform used by AAWU (IC4D). One of the key elements of in-person, dedicated software testing, is the ability of participants to directly interact and brainstorm with the developers. This allows for almost immediate feedback, and even bug fixes on the spot, which happened throughout the week. At the conclusion of the week, all those involved left with an optimistic outlook for the future of aviation hazard product production.
GSL Senior Scientist Darrel Kingfield works on updating Hazard Services software (front) while AWC staff (Amanda Terborg and Jared Schadler) discuss testing with AAWU Meteorologist in Charge Albert Pietrycha (back).
Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Implements the NAEFS v7.0.2 Upgrade
NCEP implemented the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) version 7.0.2 on Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 1200 GMT. This upgrade increased the NAEFS members to 52 by adding 10 additional Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members to the 21 current members in NAEFS, so that all 31 GEFS members are now included. NAEFS was also recalibrated to account for the additional GEFS members. The inclusion of all 31 GEFS members improves the overall accuracy of the forecast system, and for precipitation in particular. The new NAEFS also upgrades the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) global model products to 0.5 degree data.
One of the particular improvements in the NAEFS V7 over NAEFS V6 was in Day 2-3 bias-corrected 24-hour precipitation forecasts. This figure shows the Day 2-3 probability of 24h QPF > 1” for the July 2023 Vermont flooding. The NAEFS V7 forecast more accurately depicted a higher probability of > 1” rainfall in New England than NAEFS V6.
Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index Now Operational
The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) became operational on December 18 across the contiguous United States. The WSSI-P output conveys a range of possibilities of winter weather impacts, enabling enhanced preparedness and decision-making. WPC Director David Novak notes, “This is among the first NWS probabilistic impact prediction products – powering the NWS towards our probabilistic IDSS vision.”
The WSSI-P is created by using the Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast (PWPF) gridded information from the Weather Prediction Center for winter weather elements and combining it with non-meteorological or static information datasets (e.g., climatology, land-use, urban areas). The output is a graphical depiction of the likelihood of potential societal impacts due to expected winter hazards using the following categories: “Minor,” “Moderate,” “Major,” and “Extreme.” It can be used in conjunction with the deterministic WSSI to get expected, low-end, and high-end scenarios.
Probabilities of exceeding specific impact thresholds are shown using the WSSI-P.
The WSSI-P webpage depicts local and national views of the WSSI-P. The webpage is updated at approximately 0200 UTC, 0500 UTC, 1400 UTC, and 1700 UTC. The publicly-shared output is also available in GIS format (KMZ, SHP, REST Service).
For more detailed information, please view:
An infographic describing the WSSI-P.