National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Storms in the Southeast; Heavy Mountain Snow in the Northwest

A storm moving through the Southeast will produce severe storms with potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Gusty winds ahead of this front will produce elevated fire weather threats in southeastern Florida. A Pacific storm will continue moving inland spreading heavy mountain snow into the Rockies, and a wintry mix into portions of the North/Central Plains. Read More >

Know the
Forecast
 

Note: A PDF document of this presentation can be accessed here.

 
 

12 Things You Need to Know About Severe Weather Outlooks

  1. Outlooks involve uncertainty about storm development, timing, location, and threats.
    They are NOT precise forecasts.

  2. You are not guaranteed to see severe storms just because you're in an outlook area.

  3. Outlooks assume storms will actually form. Sometimes they don't. This doesn't mean
    that the outlook was bad.

  4. Outlooks come from a variety of sources. Not everyone uses the same terms,
    categories, colors, or thresholds.

  5. The SPC outlook categories - slight, moderate and high risk - are based primarily on
    the number of reports that they expect to receive, not just on the severity of the
    storms.

  6. Slight risk does not mean slightly severe.

  7. A moderate or high risk doesn't always mean tornado outbreak. These are sometimes issued for widespread, damaging wind and hail events.

  8. You can have significant tornadoes outside of the moderate or high risk areas.

  9. A high risk area near you doesn't mean your storms will be any less significant.

  10. If any outlook mentions baseball size hail and tornadoes , it doesn't mean the risk area
    will see baseball size hail and tornadoes. It just means it's possible.

  11. Outlooks change as the event gets closer. To be sure you are working with the most
    current information, check for updates, especially on the day of the event. The outlook
    you saw 6:00 AM may change significantly by 6:00 PM.

  12. Most big tornado days are preceded by outlooks days in advance. Use this extra
    time to get ready. And share the information with your family and friends so they
    can be ready, too.