665 FXUS64 KLCH 032240 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 440 PM CST THU MAR 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... CDFNT ROUGHLY BISECTING THE INLAND FCST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A QUICK INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MSTR OVERNIGHT THAT SENT DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LED TO A RATHER BALMY MORNING...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE A BIT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BY SAT NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY...A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROF IS PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SLOWLY DIG AND CLOSE OFF OVER TX/NORTHERN MEXICO BY MID WEEK THEN ONLY CREEP EASTWARD. GFS PWATS ARE FCST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WELL ABOVE THE MEAN OF AROUND 0.8 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EACH MODEL SUGGESTS SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EJECTING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...RESULTING IN SEVERAL FRONTAL WAVES/LOWS DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER EAST TX/WRN LA DURING THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...APPEAR LIKELY. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY IN THE TUE AND WED TIME PERIOD WHERE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ON A SEVERE WEATHER RISK...AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN COULD COME INTO PLAY IN TERMS OF LIMITING INSTABILITY...BUT FCST PARAMETERS AT THIS STAGE DO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW END RISK. MORE SPECIFICS WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS ON POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT AT THIS TIME AN ACTIVE MID TO PERHAPS LATE WEEK PERIOD SEEMS LIKELY. 13 && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF MODEST NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. LOW TIDES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW...AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME STRONG EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS SOON AS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED BY MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. WITH THE PROLONGED FETCH OF MODEST TO STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 48 71 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 51 72 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 51 72 51 74 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 51 74 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$