186 
FXUS64 KLCH 040904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  DRY AND
PLEASANTLY MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
S/SE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE INITIATION OF MOISTURE RETURN. 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANCE IS EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
INDICATING A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RICH THTE AIR AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED. STILL...MUCH UNCERTAINLY IN THE TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL. WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED.  GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN WITH APPROACHING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY OFFSHORE.  PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKENED GRADIENT.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  47  74  48 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  71  50  73  52 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  71  50  73  51 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  73  50  73  54 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR 
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04