705 
FXUS64 KLCH 042109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
309 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE IMMEDIATE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEK...WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO GREATLY INCREASE GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. 

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL STAY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PATTERN
THAT IS USUALLY NOTED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THEN DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...AS WELL AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TOO EARLY FOR EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THESE HEAVY RAINBANDS. SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES MAY ARISE IF THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERIFY...AND LENGTHY SOUTHERLY FETCH AT THE COAST
KEEPS MAINSTEMS FROM PROPER DRAINAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RATHER
NICE CONDITIONS WEATHER-WISE. 

THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...AND BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FOR A
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

MEANWHILE...EAST PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A CUT OFF
OF LOW OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO BY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND NOT PASS THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND OFF AND ON PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...WILL
THEN CONTINUE INTO AT-LEAST THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY. WITH EACH UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX THAT ROTATES AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EACH LOW WILL HELP PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION...WHILE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FUNNELING INTO THE REGION...MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
HIGH...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORM
BY TUESDAY...AND AROUND TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION BY
WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH PROFILES WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED...SOME PARAMETERS FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY COME ABOUT DUE TO STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND DYNAMICS AND SHEAR NEAR THE GENERAL AREAS WHERE THE
SURFACE LOWS MOVE.

THUS...HIGH POPS WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND/OR STRONG STORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...AS THE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  47  76  49  74 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  49  74  52  73 /   0   0   0  10 
LFT  50  75  52  74 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  50  75  54  74 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07