311 
FXUS64 KLCH 062133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
VERY NICE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND THE VERY WET AND
STORMY PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. 

OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THIS WEEK ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES. 

MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND MOVE AT A TURTLE SPEED IF ANY AT ALL THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.

THIS PUTS THE REGION INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE AND
STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT FROM
THE MAIN LOW. THE HIGHEST CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WHICH LOOKS OMINOUS DESPITE THE DRY PERIOD WE HAVE
RECENTLY HAD. RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT RANGE
FROM 6-12 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOKING TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON
WHICH GUIDANCE SET YOU LOOK AT. RIVER GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN THE CALCASIEU/SABINE
AND NECHES BASINS SHOULD THIS RAINFALL COME TO PASS AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
NO DRASTIC CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERE STORMS...WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. 

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AT LEAST
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY GALE. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  75  62  75 /  10  10  20  80 
LCH  58  76  65  75 /  10  10  20  90 
LFT  56  75  65  77 /   0  10  20  70 
BPT  61  77  66  76 /  10  10  20  90 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...27