996 
FXUS64 KLCH 071114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
514 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING STRATOCU OVERSPREADING
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AT AROUND 3K FEET. LOW LEVEL
JET NOW IN PLACE RESULTING IN ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THOUGH NOT YET TRANSLATED TO SURFACE...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW HAS NEGATED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH WAS PREVALENT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS. A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL
BE MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY
SOUTHERLIES. TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ABOVE THE NORM. CHANGES
INCOMING BEGINNING TUESDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A SHARP TROF ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO
A CLOSED LOW. FEATURE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO OLD MEXICO
AND THEN SLOWLY EAST. DEEP GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE
INCOMING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AMPLIFIED
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM...AND MAY REACH RECORD LEVELS FOR MID-
WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ACCORDINGLY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
PINGING ON A ROBUST MCS INCOMING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY WILL BE HAVING TO CONTEND WITH A SEVERE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS
IN PLACE. SPC HAS WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TUESDAY...THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. 

WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SURGE GUIDANCE APPROACHING 3 FEET ABOVE THE
NORM WITH A STRONG AND LENGTHY SOUTHERLY FETCH IN PLACE. AN INLAND
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY. 

WITH THE FICKLE AND TENUOUS NATURE OF CUTOFF LOWS WE ARE DEALING
WITH...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINS AND SEVERE STORMS POST-WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME SIMPLY
MAINTAINING HIGH END RAIN CHANCES AND WILL ADD/EXTEND ADDITIONAL
HAZARDS IF NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.MARINE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER TEXAS. STRENGTHENING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLIES
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  63  77  65 /  10  20  80  90 
LCH  76  65  78  67 /  10  20  80  80 
LFT  75  65  78  68 /  10  10  60  60 
BPT  77  66  78  68 /  10  20  80  90 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027-028-030-031-041-073.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY 
     FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ470-
     472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-
     452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-
     455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23