934 
FXUS64 KLCH 081041
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING SHORT OF A FEW VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ON
TAP FOR THE AREA. SEVERAL HAZARDS IN PLACE INCLUDING AN INLAND
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WEST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON TO ALEXANDRIA...AND
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING RESULTING FROM A LONG FETCH OF STRONG
SOUTHERLIES OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEVERAL HAZARDS ALSO ONGOING
OVER OUR NEAR COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TODAY TRANSITIONING INTO A GALE WARNING OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME
HAZARDS GENERALLY GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT EXPECTING A
LENGTHENING WILL BE REQUIRED IN TIME AND AREA FOR THE FLOOD
WATCH...AND A LENGTHENING IN TIME OF GULF WATERS HAZARDS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS
THURSDAY. FEATURE AND ACCOMPANYING DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST GULF/TEXAS WILL TAP INTO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS AS PWATS ROCKET TO OR ABOVE
RECORD LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY LOOKING AT FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES
YIELDING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS
AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN AN IMPRESSIVE MERIDIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. MAIN THREAT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA TODAY...EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY GFS SOMEWHAT QUICKER IN ENDING RAINS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ECMWF MORE CONCERNING WITH CONTINUED AND SOBERING
LOOKING RAIN AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO 
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THEN EAST ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS
THURSDAY. APPROACH OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...YIELDING AN
INCREASINGLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AN EXTENDED FETCH OF
STRONG SOUTHERLIES WILL RESULT INCOMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO SIGNIFICANT AND
DANGEROUS LEVELS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST GULF...WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENSION OF THE GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  66  75  67 /  80  90 100  80 
LCH  76  67  75  66 /  90  90 100  80 
LFT  77  68  76  69 /  60  60  90  80 
BPT  76  68  74  64 /  90  90 100  80 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST 
     THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073-074.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR LAZ027-028-030-031-041-073.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST 
     THURSDAY FOR LAZ041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST 
     THURSDAY FOR TXZ215.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST 
     THURSDAY FOR TXZ216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
     455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING 
     FOR GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23