900 FXUS64 KLCH 082304 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 504 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE SE TX AND SW LA. STRONG LOW/MID LVL SHEAR AND WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME INTENSE STORMS TO DEVELOP...DESPITE RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACRS WRN LA AND SE TX THROUGH 6 PM. THIS IS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPR LVL LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST ACRS NRN OLD MEXICO. MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AROUND THE AREA TODAY. && .DISCUSSION... FEW CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE FCST HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STRONG UPR LOW LINGERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND A TIGHT LOW LVL PRES GRADIENT STAYS IN PLACE. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NE FM THE UPR LOW...WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND TSTMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STORMS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX THIS AFTN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FURTHER WEST ACRS TX OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SVR STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG DESPITE ANOTHER DAY OF MEAGER INSTABILITY...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS OR ISLTD TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE OTHER MAIN ISSUES WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND AMPLE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...THE STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL PERSIST...AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. MOST OF THESE STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS ACRS WRN AND CNTL LA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR THESE LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT AS TIDES CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. REGARDING RAINFALL...AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACRS SE TX. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS OF NOTE HAVE OCCURRED BUT WITH GROUND BEGINNING TO BECOME SATURATED...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS. OVERALL...QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR SEEM TO BE ON PAR WITH RADAR-DERIVED TOTALS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN...WHILE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OF 5 TO NEARLY 10 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL ORIENTED ACRS EXTREME WRN LA AND SE TX NORTH OF I-10. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND AT TIME TIME NO EASTWARD EXTENSION HAS BEEN NEEDED. HOWEVER...SHOULD SOME HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN AREA. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND THE UPR LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. && .MARINE... A VIGOROUS UPR STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO. APPROACH OF THIS UPR SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SFC LOW PRES OVER TX AND THE WRN GULF...YIELDING A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRES JUST OFF THE SERN STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLIES FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS LEVELS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAY...WITH A GALE WARNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPR LOW AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 65 75 66 75 / 90 100 100 100 LCH 67 75 66 74 / 90 100 100 90 LFT 68 76 69 74 / 60 70 90 100 BPT 67 77 65 75 / 100 100 100 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073- 074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ041>045-052>055- 073-074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LAZ027-028- 030-031-041-073. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041. TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ215-216. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ180-201- 215-216-259>262. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452- 455-470-472-475. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455. && $$ PUBLIC...24