475 FXUS64 KLCH 090353 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 953 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016 .UPDATE... ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS EARLIER THIS EVENING IS HOLDING AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADJUSTING THE POPS FURTHER ON THIS SHIFT. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH 09/00Z...SHOWS ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS OVER TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION. MEAN RH IS ALSO EXTREMELY HIGH AT 90 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL JET IS STILL GOING STRONG WITH VAD FROM KLCH RADAR SHOWING 35 KNOTS AT 1K FEET AND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET. THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AN AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LOCATED WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY...POSSIBLY FLOODING...RAINFALL...AND STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS NEXT SPEED MAX AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN OLD MEXICO LOW NEARS THE FORECAST AREA. ALL CURRENT HAZARDS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OFF THE GULF FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. ALSO...TIDE LEVELS RUNNING 1.5 TO 2.25 ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS CURRENTLY...WILL MAKE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE LATER TONIGHT. RUA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ UPDATE... FIRST UPDATE OF THE NIGHT IS ALLOWING TORNADO WATCH 38 TO EXPIRE. MAY STILL BE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS OVER UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 8 PM. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO LOWERING. ALSO...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE NEXT BAND OF HEAVY RAIN/STRONG STORMS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THROUGH THE SHIFT AS LATEST DATA COMES IN. MAIN HAZARD FOR THE EVENING INTO THE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE GRADIENT WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. RUA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE NW THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE KAEX AREA SHORTLY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. REMAINING SITES LOOK TO BE IN THE CLEAR OF CONVECTIVE ACTION FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. CIGS RANGE FROM IFR AT KBPT TO VFR AT KLFT/KARA...WITH A GENERAL STEADY OR LOWERING TREND EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY...AND INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. MAJORITY OF LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH/WEST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DID HOLD ONTO VICINITY WORDING FOR KAEX/KLCH/KBPT. PREVAILING -SHRA AND PROB THUNDER RE- INTRODUCED TOMORROW FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/ SYNOPSIS... NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE SE TX AND SW LA. STRONG LOW/MID LVL SHEAR AND WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME INTENSE STORMS TO DEVELOP...DESPITE RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACRS WRN LA AND SE TX THROUGH 6 PM. THIS IS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG UPR LVL LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST ACRS NRN OLD MEXICO. MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AROUND THE AREA TODAY. 24 DISCUSSION... FEW CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE FCST HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STRONG UPR LOW LINGERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND A TIGHT LOW LVL PRES GRADIENT STAYS IN PLACE. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NE FM THE UPR LOW...WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND TSTMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STORMS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX THIS AFTN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH...WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FURTHER WEST ACRS TX OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SVR STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG DESPITE ANOTHER DAY OF MEAGER INSTABILITY...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS OR ISLTD TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE OTHER MAIN ISSUES WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AND AMPLE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...THE STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL PERSIST...AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. MOST OF THESE STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS ACRS WRN AND CNTL LA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR THESE LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT AS TIDES CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. REGARDING RAINFALL...AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACRS SE TX. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS OF NOTE HAVE OCCURRED BUT WITH GROUND BEGINNING TO BECOME SATURATED...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS. OVERALL...QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR SEEM TO BE ON PAR WITH RADAR-DERIVED TOTALS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN...WHILE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OF 5 TO NEARLY 10 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL ORIENTED ACRS EXTREME WRN LA AND SE TX NORTH OF I-10. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND AT TIME TIME NO EASTWARD EXTENSION HAS BEEN NEEDED. HOWEVER...SHOULD SOME HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN AREA. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND THE UPR LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. 24 MARINE... A VIGOROUS UPR STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO. APPROACH OF THIS UPR SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SFC LOW PRES OVER TX AND THE WRN GULF...YIELDING A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRES JUST OFF THE SERN STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLIES FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS LEVELS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAY...WITH A GALE WARNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT NE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPR LOW AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 65 75 66 75 / 90 100 100 100 LCH 67 75 66 74 / 50 100 100 90 LFT 68 76 69 74 / 40 70 90 100 BPT 67 77 65 75 / 70 100 100 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073- 074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ041>045-052>055- 073-074. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LAZ027-028- 030-031-041-073. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041. TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ215-216. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ180-201- 215-216-259>262. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216. GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455. && $$ PUBLIC...07