891 FXUS64 KLCH 090948 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 348 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO/W TX THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FETCH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY. FOR THIS...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND. RADAR SHOWING ONLY SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BEGINNING TO SEE THE RAINSHIELD FURTHER WEST OF WHAT WILL BE LIKELY AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OVER OUR REGION. RUNNING THE LATEST QPF NUMBERS YIELD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 9 TO 12 INCHES OVER SE TX/W LA. FOR C LA THRU S LA BETWEEN LFT & LCH...EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES. FOR THIS...HAD TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE EVANGELINE...ACADIA...JEFF DAVIS...AND EASTERN CAMERON PARISHES. IN ADDITION...SPC HAS AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR ENTIRE AREA. POSSIBLE SVR WX THREATS INCLUDE MAINLY WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONG LLJ IN PLACE AND EXPECTED MCS...BUT CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL OR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS. THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT OUT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NE ACROSS N OLD MEXICO INTO TX THU THROUGH SAT. WILL LIKELY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER THU AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS BITS OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW YIELDING INTERMITTENT SHRA/TSRA THRU SAT. BY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX SUN. FOR NOW...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER INLAND SE TX/C LA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF HERE BY MON AND TUE OF NEXT WEEK. DML && .MARINE... A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...YIELDING AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS. DML && .COASTAL FLOODING... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST...LEADING TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO HAZARD GRIDS. DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 67 76 66 / 100 100 100 70 LCH 75 68 76 64 / 100 100 100 60 LFT 76 70 75 66 / 60 100 100 80 BPT 74 67 75 63 / 100 100 100 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073- 074. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-028- 030>032-041>043-073-074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055- 073-074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ028-029-031-032. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041. TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216. GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432- 435. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455. && $$ PUBLIC...04