574 FXUS64 KLCH 092242 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 442 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FM ARK SSW INTO NRN LA/ERN TX DOWN TOWARD FAR S TX. WHILE THIS LARGER AREA OF STORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING DUE TO DEEP UPR LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO...THE ACTIVITY ACRS SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA HAS BEEN AIDED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A MLU-JAS-IAH LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAVE RANGED FM 1.5 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES ACRS NRN JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES AND NWRN VERNON PARISH...WHILE STORM TOTALS SINCE YESTERDAY ARE NEARLY 7.5 INCHES ACRS THE SAME REGION. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED TODAY THANKS TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE A FEW STORMS WITH ROTATION TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER TX AND HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE AGAIN SEEN GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. && .DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT VIGOROUS UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES/FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT HAZARDS...FLOOD WATCH...WIND ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FCST PKG WILL BE QPF OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD LATEST HRRR TRENDS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB ON PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/HIGHER QPF. THUS...KEPT HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX THIS EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL QPF TOTALS FM 00Z-12Z INDICATE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES ACRS SE TX...TRAINING OF STORMS WILL SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AS IS ALSO THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...IDENTIFYING THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE FORCING AND THE TRANSLATION OF ENERGY ALOFT...WHICH CAN IMPACT WHERE ACTUAL RAINBANDS AND TRAINING STORMS SET UP. THIS CAN RESULT IN HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACRS THE WRN LA PARISHES OR WEST ACRS JEFFERSON/HARDIN/TYLER OR EVEN ACRS MULTIPLE AREAS. FOR THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST...PLACING MORE OF CNTL LA AND THE ACADIANA REGION UNDER THE HEAVIEST BULLS-EYE. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BANDS OF RAIN BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAIN CHCS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT NOT QUITE COME TO AN END THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE LARGE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR RAIN TO THE EXTREME NRN ZONES. THINGS THEN LOOK TO BEGIN DRYING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SLY WINDS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG TO SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY...WITH THE GALE WARNINGS LOWERING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...GRADUALLY BCMG MORE SWLY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 77 67 74 / 100 100 90 80 LCH 69 77 65 74 / 80 90 80 70 LFT 71 76 67 74 / 60 100 90 80 BPT 68 77 64 76 / 100 90 80 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ052>055-073- 074. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ028-029- 031>033-042>045-052>055-074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055- 073-074. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041- 073. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ041. TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ215-216. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215- 216-259>262. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ216. GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ455-475. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ472-475. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THURSDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-432. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ452-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435. && $$ PUBLIC...24