542 
FXUS64 KLCH 100953
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER OLD
MEXICO/W TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FETCH EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES UP
THE TX COAST INTO E TX THIS EVENING.

RADAR SHOWING CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SE TX/C LA IN
THE SAME LOCATIONS HARDEST HIT THE LAST 24 HOURS. INCREASED
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE TX COAST INTO LOWER SE TX/SW LA
AS OF THIS WRITING...LOOKING LIKE S LA WILL GET AT LEAST THE START
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ADVERTISED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH THE MEANDERING SFC AND UPPER LOW OVER TX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
OUTLOOK IS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...FOLLOWED
BY PERIODS OF NO RAINFALL AT ALL THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. WHERE TRAINING
EXISTS...AREA COULD PICK UP 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. FOR THIS...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 6 PM FRI.

POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP AS THE ENTIRE SFC AND UPPER LOW
LIFTS NE LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
POSSIBLY GENERATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER INLAND SE
TX/C LA DURING THIS PERIOD. BY MON & TUE...PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF HERE BY MON AND TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY WED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENDED FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND CARIBBEAN SEA WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MOVES NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE LONE
STAR STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXTENSIVE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

DML

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.0 FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER THIS MORNING NEAR HIGH TIDE. WITH THE DIMINISHED
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...NOT ANTICIPATING AN EXTENSION OF
THE WARNING OR ADVISORY.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  67  75  63 / 100  90  90  50 
LCH  77  66  75  62 / 100  90  90  50 
LFT  76  67  74  64 / 100  90  90  70 
BPT  76  65  75  62 / 100  90  70  50 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     LAZ052>055-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ033-041>045-052>055-
     073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     LAZ041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     TXZ215.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     TXZ216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ455-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435-
     450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-472.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST 
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH 
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08