FGUS74 KLCH 031545 ESFLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262- 051545- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 945 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016 THIS OUTLOOK CONSIDERS ANTECEDENT RAINFALL, SNOWPACK, SOIL MOISTURE, STREAMFLOW, AND WATERSUPPLY CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY COMBINED WITH LONGER-TERM 90-DAY CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORECASTS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING OVER MOST OF THE REGION IS THE OCCURRENCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME, EVEN FOR AREAS WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OR HAVE DEVELOPED. ...MISSISSIPPI RIVER BELOW CHESTER IL AND OHIO RIVER BELOW SMITHLAND DAM IL INCLUDING ATCHAFALAYA RIVER... A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OCCURRED IN LATE DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY BUT STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED DURING THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF. ANOTHER RISE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR AT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS ALONG THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS: 3/2 MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEBES IL 126% OHIO RIVER CAIRO IL 141% MISSISSIPPI RIVER MEMPHIS TN 127% MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARKANSAS CITY AR 120% MISSISSIPPI RIVER VICKSBURG MS 121% MISSISSIPPI RIVER NATCHEZ MS 117% MISSISSIPPI RIVER RED RIVER LANDING LA 114% MISSISSIPPI RIVER BATON ROUGE LA 115% MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEW ORLEANS LA 113% ATCHAFALAYA RIVER SIMMESPORT LA 134% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, LOWER OHIO, AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS. ...LOWER RED BASIN BELOW FULTON AR... STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED FROM HIGHER LEVELS IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY. STREAMFLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. SEASONAL MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE SULPHUR RIVER AT NAPLES, BAYOU DORCHEAT AT SPRINGHILL, AND ON BAYOU BODCAU. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW. 3/2 COOPER RES. TX 98% TEXARKANA RES. TX 47% LAKE O' PINES TX 80% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...A AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY. ...CALCASIEU/MERMENTAU BASINS IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS HAS REDUCED SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT AND STREAMFLOWS TO BELOW NORMAL. SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED THIS YEAR BUT ALL LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW. 3/2 CALCASIEU RIVER GLENMORA LA 26% CALCASIEU RIVER KINDER LA 35% BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MERMENTAU AND CALCASIEU BASINS. ...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE NECHES AND SABINE RIVER BASINS... POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IN THIS AREA IS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHER POTENTIALS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS BASINS. MOST OF THE BASINS IN THIS REGION HAVE RECEIVED ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPERIENCED ALONG THE GULF COAST TO EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE LEAD TO INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EASTERN TEXAS, PRIMARILY IN THE SABINE AND NECHES RIVER BASINS. MOST AREA RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR CONSERVATION LEVELS RANGING FROM 95 PERCENT OR MORE OF CONSERVATION STORAGE PERCENT CAPACITY. ...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS, THE GULF COAST AND WEST NORTH CAROLINA. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDCATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST. THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LMRFC AREA. $$ 27