WFO - ABR net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATNS2 75 (123/165) 100 (274/274) 70 (115/165) 70 (191/274) 41 ( 67/165) 23 ( 64/274) 8 ( 13/165) over 20 under -10 over 5 under -20 under -16 under -13 under -3 12.4 -5.3 12.8 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMBS2 78 (129/165) 100 (274/274) 74 (122/165) 72 (197/274) 45 ( 75/165) 24 ( 66/274) 10 ( 16/165) over 17 under -10 over 1 under -22 under -20 under -14 under -5 12.7 -7.6 13.4 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSWS2 94 (150/159) 100 (261/261) 86 (137/159) 67 (174/261) 38 ( 60/159) 29 ( 75/261) 12 ( 19/159) over 1 under -10 under -11 under -17 under -13 under -19 under -7 11.1 -10.9 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTPS2 84 (132/157) 100 (241/241) 75 (117/157) 63 (152/241) 25 ( 39/157) 24 ( 57/241) 12 ( 19/157) over 11 under -10 spot-on 0 under -13 spot-on 0 under -14 under -7 7.9 -4.7 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIES2 89 (144/161) 100 (258/258) 80 (128/161) 62 (160/258) 41 ( 66/161) 37 ( 95/258) 27 ( 43/161) over 6 under -10 under -5 under -12 under -16 under -27 under -22 14.0 -12.3 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RFDS2 77 (127/165) 100 (274/274) 72 (119/165) 67 (183/274) 41 ( 68/165) 22 ( 61/274) 12 ( 20/165) over 18 under -10 over 3 under -17 under -16 under -12 under -7 11.9 -5.9 11.6 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFDS2 73 (120/165) 100 (274/274) 66 (109/165) 66 (180/274) 39 ( 64/165) 25 ( 68/274) 11 ( 18/165) over 22 under -10 over 9 under -16 under -14 under -15 under -6 13.1 -4.3 12.8 -9.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNKS2 58 ( 30/ 52) 100 ( 52/ 52) 50 ( 26/ 52) 44 ( 23/ 52) 27 ( 14/ 52) 4 ( 2/ 52) 0 ( 0/ 52) over 37 under -10 over 25 over 6 under -2 over 6 over 5 13.0 9.6 9.8 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBSS2 91 (144/159) 100 (261/261) 81 (128/159) 60 (156/261) 42 ( 66/159) 26 ( 68/261) 14 ( 23/159) over 4 under -10 under -6 under -10 under -17 under -16 under -9 10.3 -9.1 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBWS2 92 (146/159) 100 (261/261) 83 (132/159) 57 (150/261) 33 ( 52/159) 14 ( 37/261) 13 ( 20/159) over 3 under -10 under -8 under -7 under -8 under -4 under -8 6.9 -6.0 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WESS2 84 (138/165) 100 (274/274) 80 (132/165) 68 (185/274) 42 ( 69/165) 24 ( 66/274) 12 ( 19/165) over 11 under -10 under -5 under -18 under -17 under -14 under -7 11.7 -8.6 12.8 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHIS2 89 (144/161) 100 (258/258) 81 (130/161) 69 (177/258) 49 ( 79/161) 41 (105/258) 22 ( 35/161) over 6 under -10 under -6 under -19 under -24 under -31 under -17 16.1 -14.4 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRS2 94 (150/159) 100 (261/261) 87 (139/159) 67 (174/261) 45 ( 72/159) 22 ( 57/261) 15 ( 24/159) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -17 under -20 under -12 under -10 11.7 -11.4 14.2 -14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================