Forecast Group - BIGBLUE (BBL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARN1 95 (129/136) 100 (212/212) 78 (106/136) 45 ( 96/212) 22 ( 30/136) 8 ( 16/212) 5 ( 7/136) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 over 5 over 3 over 2 spot-on 0 3.3 -0.4 4.6 -0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEAN1 94 (128/136) 100 (212/212) 79 (107/136) 53 (113/212) 26 ( 35/136) 14 ( 29/212) 4 ( 6/136) over 1 under -10 under -4 under -3 under -1 under -4 over 1 3.4 -2.9 4.4 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLRK1 96 (128/134) 100 (210/210) 79 (106/134) 51 (108/210) 32 ( 43/134) 11 ( 24/210) 10 ( 14/134) under -1 under -10 under -4 under -1 under -7 under -1 under -5 4.1 -4.1 4.6 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRTN1 94 (128/136) 100 (212/212) 81 (110/136) 55 (116/212) 30 ( 41/136) 8 ( 17/212) 2 ( 3/136) over 1 under -10 under -6 under -5 under -5 over 2 over 3 4.6 -2.9 5.6 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRGN1 84 (114/136) 100 (212/212) 68 ( 93/136) 42 ( 88/212) 16 ( 22/136) 6 ( 13/212) 1 ( 2/136) over 11 under -10 over 7 over 8 over 9 over 4 over 4 7.6 4.7 7.6 3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DWEN1 92 (125/136) 100 (212/212) 70 ( 95/136) 54 (115/212) 21 ( 28/136) 7 ( 15/212) 1 ( 2/136) over 3 under -10 over 5 under -4 over 4 over 3 over 4 4.7 0.7 5.2 -0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FKFK1 92 (123/134) 100 (210/210) 75 (101/134) 52 (109/210) 20 ( 27/134) 10 ( 21/210) 6 ( 8/134) over 3 under -10 spot-on 0 under -2 over 5 spot-on 0 under -1 3.0 -0.7 3.4 -1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRBN1 96 (131/136) 100 (212/212) 73 ( 99/136) 55 (116/212) 26 ( 35/136) 10 ( 21/212) 5 ( 7/136) under -1 under -10 over 2 under -5 under -1 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 2.7 -2.1 3.6 -2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBGK1 90 (123/136) 100 (212/212) 75 (102/136) 44 ( 94/212) 20 ( 27/136) 4 ( 9/212) 4 ( 5/136) over 5 under -10 spot-on 0 over 6 over 5 over 6 over 1 4.7 1.9 5.4 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRYK1 96 (130/136) 100 (212/212) 81 (110/136) 49 (104/212) 25 ( 34/136) 10 ( 21/212) 4 ( 6/136) under -1 under -10 under -6 over 1 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 over 1 2.7 -2.1 3.4 -3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPK1 65 ( 87/134) 100 (210/210) 51 ( 68/134) 37 ( 78/210) 25 ( 34/134) 16 ( 33/210) 12 ( 16/134) over 30 under -10 over 24 over 13 spot-on 0 under -6 under -7 12.9 6.3 10.6 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRPN1 97 (132/136) 100 (212/212) 84 (114/136) 65 (138/212) 35 ( 48/136) 22 ( 47/212) 7 ( 10/136) under -2 under -10 under -9 under -15 under -10 under -12 under -2 8.6 -8.6 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWDN1 96 (131/136) 100 (212/212) 85 (115/136) 58 (123/212) 32 ( 44/136) 10 ( 21/212) 7 ( 9/136) under -1 under -10 under -10 under -8 under -7 spot-on 0 under -2 5.4 -5.4 7.0 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWRN1 96 (130/136) 100 (212/212) 85 (115/136) 58 (122/212) 21 ( 29/136) 9 ( 20/212) 4 ( 6/136) under -1 under -10 under -10 under -8 over 4 over 1 over 1 5.0 -3.3 6.6 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLBN1 90 (123/136) 100 (212/212) 70 ( 95/136) 48 (102/212) 37 ( 50/136) 12 ( 25/212) 9 ( 12/136) over 5 under -10 over 5 over 2 under -12 under -2 under -4 5.7 -2.3 6.2 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WSHK1 93 (127/136) 100 (212/212) 81 (110/136) 64 (135/212) 37 ( 50/136) 16 ( 33/212) 10 ( 13/136) over 2 under -10 under -6 under -14 under -12 under -6 under -5 7.9 -7.3 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================