WFO - BIS net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BREN8 75 (120/161) 100 (258/258) 65 (105/161) 55 (141/258) 27 ( 44/161) 29 ( 76/258) 13 ( 21/161) over 20 under -10 over 10 under -5 under -2 under -19 under -8 10.6 -2.0 9.2 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVRN8 99 (159/161) 100 (199/199) 93 (150/161) 70 (140/199) 35 ( 57/161) 15 ( 30/199) 11 ( 17/161) under -4 under -10 under -18 under -20 under -10 under -5 under -6 10.4 -10.4 12.6 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GCEN8 84 (139/165) 100 (274/274) 81 (134/165) 79 (217/274) 50 ( 83/165) 28 ( 77/274) 17 ( 28/165) over 11 under -10 under -6 under -29 under -25 under -18 under -12 15.9 -12.7 17.6 -17.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZNN8 80 (132/166) 100 (271/271) 71 (118/166) 57 (154/271) 34 ( 57/166) 20 ( 53/271) 8 ( 13/166) over 15 under -10 over 4 under -7 under -9 under -10 under -3 8.3 -2.9 8.0 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAMN8 87 (143/165) 100 (274/274) 84 (138/165) 84 (230/274) 66 (109/165) 35 ( 97/274) 19 ( 31/165) over 8 under -10 under -9 under -34 under -41 under -25 under -14 20.1 -17.9 23.8 -23.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMCN8 93 (154/166) 100 (271/271) 89 (147/166) 73 (197/271) 47 ( 78/166) 25 ( 67/271) 16 ( 27/166) over 2 under -10 under -14 under -23 under -22 under -15 under -11 13.9 -13.3 16.8 -16.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDAN8 91 (151/166) 100 (271/271) 83 (137/166) 77 (208/271) 51 ( 84/166) 31 ( 85/271) 11 ( 19/166) over 4 under -10 under -8 under -27 under -26 under -21 under -6 14.6 -13.4 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDNN8 90 (150/166) 100 (271/271) 85 (141/166) 70 (191/271) 43 ( 71/166) 27 ( 73/271) 16 ( 26/166) over 5 under -10 under -10 under -20 under -18 under -17 under -11 13.0 -11.6 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MENN8 81 (135/166) 100 (271/271) 73 (122/166) 44 (120/271) 19 ( 31/166) 11 ( 29/271) 6 ( 10/166) over 14 under -10 over 2 over 6 over 6 under -1 under -1 5.7 2.3 5.0 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNGN8 96 (160/166) 100 (271/271) 93 (154/166) 80 (216/271) 50 ( 83/166) 20 ( 54/271) 10 ( 17/166) under -1 under -10 under -18 under -30 under -25 under -10 under -5 14.1 -14.1 18.6 -18.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTHN8 87 (144/166) 100 (271/271) 83 (138/166) 75 (203/271) 48 ( 79/166) 33 ( 89/271) 9 ( 15/166) over 8 under -10 under -8 under -25 under -23 under -23 under -4 14.4 -12.1 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PGEN8 96 (159/165) 100 (274/274) 92 (151/165) 90 (246/274) 67 (111/165) 41 (112/274) 28 ( 46/165) under -1 under -10 under -17 under -40 under -42 under -31 under -23 23.4 -23.4 28.0 -28.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGN8 81 (131/161) 100 (258/258) 59 ( 95/161) 39 (101/258) 26 ( 42/161) 12 ( 30/258) 8 ( 13/161) over 14 under -10 over 16 over 11 under -1 under -2 under -3 8.1 3.6 8.0 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RLGN8 83 (133/161) 100 (258/258) 71 (114/161) 47 (120/258) 38 ( 61/161) 21 ( 55/258) 23 ( 37/161) over 12 under -10 over 4 over 3 under -13 under -11 under -18 10.1 -4.7 8.2 -5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLTN8 79 ( 70/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 78 ( 69/ 89) 74 ( 66/ 89) 69 ( 61/ 89) 55 ( 49/ 89) 39 ( 35/ 89) over 16 under -10 under -3 under -24 under -44 under -45 under -34 25.1 -20.6 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTFN8 94 (156/166) 100 (271/271) 92 (152/166) 79 (213/271) 61 (102/166) 34 ( 91/271) 23 ( 39/166) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -29 under -36 under -24 under -18 19.3 -19.0 23.2 -23.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZAPN8 96 (159/166) 100 (271/271) 89 (147/166) 64 (174/271) 39 ( 65/166) 13 ( 36/271) 6 ( 10/166) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -14 under -14 under -3 under -1 8.1 -8.1 11.0 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================