WFO - BOU net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATWC2 71 ( 61/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 59 ( 51/ 86) 44 ( 38/ 86) 26 ( 22/ 86) 16 ( 14/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) over 24 under -10 over 16 over 6 under -1 under -6 under -2 9.3 3.9 7.8 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BZNC2 75 (109/145) 100 (169/169) 58 ( 84/145) 43 ( 73/169) 21 ( 30/145) 15 ( 26/169) 5 ( 7/145) over 20 under -10 over 17 over 7 over 4 under -5 spot-on 0 9.0 4.7 8.6 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DKKC2 59 ( 86/145) 100 (155/155) 59 ( 86/145) 60 ( 93/155) 52 ( 75/145) 47 ( 73/155) 39 ( 57/145) over 36 under -10 over 16 under -10 under -27 under -37 under -34 24.3 -9.4 20.0 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNVC2 92 (134/145) 100 (174/174) 89 (129/145) 83 (144/174) 68 ( 99/145) 44 ( 77/174) 30 ( 44/145) over 3 under -10 under -14 under -33 under -43 under -34 under -25 23.1 -22.3 26.8 -26.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRBC2 97 (140/145) 100 (174/174) 90 (130/145) 77 (134/174) 66 ( 95/145) 43 ( 75/174) 39 ( 57/145) under -2 under -10 under -15 under -27 under -41 under -33 under -34 23.1 -23.1 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOMC2 70 ( 60/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 47 ( 40/ 86) 24 ( 21/ 86) 14 ( 12/ 86) 12 ( 10/ 86) 5 ( 4/ 86) over 25 under -10 over 28 over 26 over 11 under -2 spot-on 0 14.6 11.1 15.4 10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTDC2 92 (134/145) 100 (178/178) 90 (131/145) 86 (153/178) 63 ( 92/145) 44 ( 78/178) 15 ( 22/145) over 3 under -10 under -15 under -36 under -38 under -34 under -10 20.9 -20.0 26.6 -26.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLDC2 83 (120/145) 100 (176/176) 81 (118/145) 77 (135/176) 57 ( 83/145) 46 ( 81/176) 28 ( 40/145) over 12 under -10 under -6 under -27 under -32 under -36 under -23 20.9 -17.4 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRPC2 90 (130/145) 100 (181/181) 86 (125/145) 78 (141/181) 56 ( 81/145) 34 ( 62/181) 12 ( 18/145) over 5 under -10 under -11 under -28 under -31 under -24 under -7 16.6 -15.1 20.8 -20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNDC2 84 (122/145) 100 (174/174) 75 (109/145) 63 (109/174) 38 ( 55/145) 21 ( 36/174) 13 ( 19/145) over 11 under -10 spot-on 0 under -13 under -13 under -11 under -8 9.4 -6.3 9.4 -9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JULC2 76 (110/145) 100 (169/169) 66 ( 96/145) 53 ( 89/169) 37 ( 54/145) 29 ( 49/169) 17 ( 25/145) over 19 under -10 over 9 under -3 under -12 under -19 under -12 12.0 -4.0 10.6 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KERC2 76 (110/145) 100 (174/174) 62 ( 90/145) 51 ( 89/174) 30 ( 43/145) 14 ( 25/174) 7 ( 10/145) over 19 under -10 over 13 under -1 under -5 under -4 under -2 7.7 1.4 6.6 -1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOVC2 90 (131/145) 100 (176/176) 84 (122/145) 77 (136/176) 62 ( 90/145) 48 ( 85/176) 30 ( 44/145) over 5 under -10 under -9 under -27 under -37 under -38 under -25 21.6 -20.1 24.2 -24.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LUPC2 85 ( 69/ 81) 100 ( 81/ 81) 80 ( 65/ 81) 64 ( 52/ 81) 32 ( 26/ 81) 14 ( 11/ 81) 10 ( 8/ 81) over 10 under -10 under -5 under -14 under -7 under -4 under -5 7.9 -5.0 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRRC2 94 (137/145) 100 (174/174) 89 (129/145) 81 (141/174) 59 ( 86/145) 47 ( 82/174) 34 ( 49/145) over 1 under -10 under -14 under -31 under -34 under -37 under -29 22.3 -22.0 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGTC2 88 (127/144) 100 (165/165) 83 (120/144) 77 (127/165) 67 ( 96/144) 62 (102/165) 47 ( 68/144) over 7 under -10 under -8 under -27 under -42 under -52 under -42 26.9 -24.9 27.8 -27.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POUC2 93 (135/145) 100 (181/181) 92 (133/145) 86 (155/181) 70 (101/145) 50 ( 90/181) 20 ( 29/145) over 2 under -10 under -17 under -36 under -45 under -40 under -15 23.6 -23.0 29.6 -29.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHRC2 86 (125/145) 100 (174/174) 83 (120/145) 70 (122/174) 54 ( 78/145) 30 ( 53/174) 19 ( 27/145) over 9 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -29 under -20 under -14 15.7 -13.1 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPTC2 44 ( 64/145) 100 (174/174) 39 ( 56/145) 37 ( 64/174) 26 ( 38/145) 23 ( 40/174) 15 ( 22/145) over 51 under -10 over 36 over 13 under -1 under -13 under -10 19.1 9.4 14.6 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WNAC2 79 (115/145) 100 (169/169) 65 ( 94/145) 50 ( 84/169) 32 ( 46/145) 11 ( 19/169) 6 ( 8/145) over 16 under -10 over 10 spot-on 0 under -7 under -1 under -1 6.4 1.0 5.6 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================