WFO - CYS net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BGPN1 63 ( 91/144) 100 (150/150) 58 ( 84/144) 51 ( 76/150) 42 ( 60/144) 38 ( 57/150) 32 ( 46/144) over 32 under -10 over 17 under -1 under -17 under -28 under -27 18.9 -4.9 14.6 -7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOSW4 81 (116/144) 100 (165/165) 79 (114/144) 67 (111/165) 51 ( 74/144) 45 ( 75/165) 34 ( 49/144) over 14 under -10 under -4 under -17 under -26 under -35 under -29 19.3 -15.3 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECRW4 94 (135/144) 100 (155/155) 92 (132/144) 90 (139/155) 78 (112/144) 63 ( 97/155) 47 ( 67/144) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -40 under -53 under -53 under -42 30.9 -30.6 34.6 -34.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLAW4 86 (124/144) 100 (165/165) 82 (118/144) 73 (120/165) 60 ( 86/144) 49 ( 81/165) 38 ( 55/144) over 9 under -10 under -7 under -23 under -35 under -39 under -33 22.3 -19.7 22.8 -22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNW4 69 (100/144) 100 (159/159) 68 ( 98/144) 63 (100/159) 54 ( 78/144) 42 ( 66/159) 33 ( 48/144) over 26 under -10 over 7 under -13 under -29 under -32 under -28 20.7 -11.3 18.2 -15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HANW4 90 (129/144) 100 (165/165) 83 (119/144) 73 (120/165) 58 ( 83/144) 47 ( 77/165) 31 ( 45/144) over 5 under -10 under -8 under -23 under -33 under -37 under -26 20.3 -18.9 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HENN1 60 ( 86/144) 100 (158/158) 56 ( 81/144) 47 ( 75/158) 40 ( 58/144) 39 ( 61/158) 28 ( 41/144) over 35 under -10 over 19 over 3 under -15 under -29 under -23 19.1 -2.9 15.2 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LLRW4 86 (124/144) 100 (165/165) 83 (119/144) 70 (115/165) 54 ( 78/144) 39 ( 65/165) 31 ( 45/144) over 9 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -29 under -29 under -26 18.7 -16.1 19.2 -19.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICN1 63 ( 91/144) 100 (150/150) 56 ( 81/144) 49 ( 74/150) 34 ( 49/144) 30 ( 45/150) 18 ( 26/144) over 32 under -10 over 19 over 1 under -9 under -20 under -13 14.9 0.0 11.8 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNTN1 44 ( 64/144) 100 (150/150) 42 ( 60/144) 35 ( 52/150) 28 ( 40/144) 24 ( 36/150) 17 ( 24/144) over 51 under -10 over 33 over 15 under -3 under -14 under -12 19.7 8.6 15.0 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORIW4 76 (110/144) 100 (159/159) 76 (110/144) 75 (120/159) 68 ( 98/144) 57 ( 91/159) 45 ( 65/144) over 19 under -10 under -1 under -25 under -43 under -47 under -40 26.4 -21.0 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SINW4 91 (131/144) 100 (155/155) 81 (117/144) 70 (108/155) 59 ( 85/144) 54 ( 83/155) 40 ( 57/144) over 4 under -10 under -6 under -20 under -34 under -44 under -35 21.9 -20.7 22.8 -22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAW4 84 (121/144) 100 (165/165) 72 (103/144) 62 (102/165) 51 ( 74/144) 42 ( 69/165) 29 ( 42/144) over 11 under -10 over 3 under -12 under -26 under -32 under -24 16.9 -12.9 16.6 -15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODW4 94 (136/144) 100 (165/165) 91 (131/144) 80 (132/165) 65 ( 93/144) 52 ( 85/165) 39 ( 56/144) over 1 under -10 under -16 under -30 under -40 under -42 under -34 24.7 -24.4 27.6 -27.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================