WFO - DMX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATCI4 90 (137/153) 100 (253/253) 73 (111/153) 53 (133/253) 25 ( 38/153) 7 ( 17/253) 7 ( 10/153) over 5 under -10 over 2 under -3 spot-on 0 over 3 under -2 3.6 -0.7 3.6 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDFI4 93 (141/152) 100 (252/252) 69 (105/152) 66 (167/252) 48 ( 73/152) 31 ( 78/252) 18 ( 27/152) over 2 under -10 over 6 under -16 under -23 under -21 under -13 13.0 -10.7 15.2 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHTI4 84 (130/154) 100 (249/249) 63 ( 97/154) 55 (136/249) 34 ( 53/154) 20 ( 51/249) 11 ( 17/154) over 11 under -10 over 12 under -5 under -9 under -10 under -6 9.0 -2.4 9.2 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DVSI4 97 (150/154) 100 (249/249) 77 (118/154) 61 (151/249) 25 ( 38/154) 11 ( 28/249) 6 ( 9/154) under -2 under -10 under -2 under -11 spot-on 0 under -1 under -1 3.9 -3.9 4.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MOLI4 77 (119/154) 100 (249/249) 62 ( 96/154) 53 (132/249) 25 ( 38/154) 12 ( 31/249) 6 ( 10/154) over 18 under -10 over 13 under -3 spot-on 0 under -2 under -1 6.7 2.1 5.6 -0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRMI4 97 (149/154) 100 (249/249) 68 (104/154) 47 (116/249) 20 ( 31/154) 16 ( 39/249) 5 ( 8/154) under -2 under -10 over 7 over 3 over 5 under -6 spot-on 0 4.7 -0.4 6.2 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================