WFO - EAX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGYM7 94 (143/152) 100 (252/252) 74 (113/152) 64 (161/252) 39 ( 60/152) 11 ( 27/252) 9 ( 13/152) over 1 under -10 over 1 under -14 under -14 under -1 under -4 6.4 -5.9 8.0 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATCK1 71 ( 52/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 49 ( 36/ 73) 29 ( 21/ 73) 14 ( 10/ 73) 3 ( 2/ 73) 1 ( 1/ 73) over 24 under -10 over 26 over 21 over 11 over 7 over 4 14.7 11.9 15.0 11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLRM7 91 (127/140) 100 (140/140) 74 (103/140) 51 ( 72/140) 20 ( 28/140) 4 ( 5/140) 2 ( 3/140) over 4 under -10 over 1 under -1 over 5 over 6 over 3 4.3 1.1 4.6 0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLVM7 93 (142/152) 100 (229/229) 74 (112/152) 54 (124/229) 28 ( 42/152) 3 ( 8/229) 0 ( 0/152) over 2 under -10 over 1 under -4 under -3 over 7 over 5 4.6 -0.3 5.0 -1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONM7 95 (145/152) 100 (229/229) 85 (129/152) 69 (158/229) 28 ( 43/152) 6 ( 13/229) 5 ( 7/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -10 under -19 under -3 over 4 spot-on 0 6.6 -5.4 9.2 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOZM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 61 ( 45/ 74) 38 ( 28/ 74) 15 ( 11/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 14 over 12 over 10 over 7 over 5 9.6 6.7 10.6 6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRLM7 85 (129/152) 100 (252/252) 69 (105/152) 41 (103/252) 28 ( 43/152) 8 ( 19/252) 1 ( 2/152) over 10 under -10 over 6 over 9 under -3 over 2 over 4 6.3 2.6 6.0 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVCM7 56 ( 65/116) 100 (116/116) 41 ( 48/116) 30 ( 35/116) 21 ( 24/116) 11 ( 13/116) 8 ( 9/116) over 39 under -10 over 34 over 20 over 4 under -1 under -3 15.9 11.9 13.8 9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAXM7 97 (147/152) 100 (229/229) 85 (129/152) 57 (130/229) 14 ( 21/152) 5 ( 12/229) 5 ( 7/152) under -2 under -10 under -10 under -7 over 11 over 5 spot-on 0 6.4 -1.9 8.6 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHZM7 97 (149/154) 100 (249/249) 79 (121/154) 57 (141/249) 34 ( 53/154) 15 ( 38/249) 10 ( 16/154) under -2 under -10 under -4 under -7 under -9 under -5 under -5 6.0 -6.0 7.0 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DSOK1 83 (119/143) 100 (143/143) 59 ( 84/143) 37 ( 53/143) 15 ( 21/143) 1 ( 2/143) 1 ( 2/143) over 12 under -10 over 16 over 13 over 10 over 9 over 4 10.6 7.7 11.6 7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ESTK1 89 (137/154) 100 (156/156) 62 ( 95/154) 26 ( 41/156) 11 ( 17/154) 1 ( 1/156) 0 ( 0/154) over 6 under -10 over 13 over 24 over 14 over 9 over 5 11.6 8.7 14.0 10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FFXM7 94 (144/153) 100 (253/253) 75 (114/153) 46 (117/253) 15 ( 23/153) 1 ( 3/253) 1 ( 1/153) over 1 under -10 spot-on 0 over 4 over 10 over 9 over 4 5.4 2.6 6.6 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FYTM7 93 (142/152) 100 (229/229) 69 (105/152) 48 (111/229) 10 ( 15/152) 1 ( 3/229) 1 ( 2/152) over 2 under -10 over 6 over 2 over 15 over 9 over 4 6.9 4.0 8.4 4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GAZM7 100 (154/154) 100 (249/249) 87 (134/154) 66 (164/249) 38 ( 59/154) 17 ( 43/249) 14 ( 22/154) under -5 under -10 under -12 under -16 under -13 under -7 under -9 10.3 -10.3 11.6 -11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLZM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 62 ( 46/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 14 ( 10/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 13 over 14 over 11 over 7 over 5 9.9 7.0 11.0 7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAYM7 47 ( 71/152) 100 (173/173) 41 ( 62/152) 25 ( 43/173) 17 ( 26/152) 9 ( 16/173) 3 ( 5/152) over 48 under -10 over 34 over 25 over 8 over 1 over 2 18.3 15.4 15.6 11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KBRM7 91 (139/152) 100 (229/229) 84 (127/152) 66 (151/229) 28 ( 42/152) 8 ( 18/229) 7 ( 11/152) over 4 under -10 under -9 under -16 under -3 over 2 under -2 6.6 -4.9 8.0 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCCM7 98 (149/152) 100 (229/229) 88 (133/152) 64 (147/229) 16 ( 25/152) 8 ( 19/229) 4 ( 6/152) under -3 under -10 under -13 under -14 over 9 over 2 over 1 7.4 -4.0 9.6 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCDM7 81 ( 60/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 59 ( 44/ 74) 38 ( 28/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 4 ( 3/ 74) 1 ( 1/ 74) over 14 under -10 over 16 over 12 over 9 over 6 over 4 10.1 7.3 10.6 6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCKK1 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 64 ( 47/ 74) 47 ( 35/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 8 ( 6/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 11 over 3 over 9 over 2 spot-on 0 6.3 3.4 7.0 3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCTM7 97 (147/152) 100 (173/173) 82 (124/152) 57 ( 99/173) 17 ( 26/152) 6 ( 11/173) 3 ( 4/152) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -7 over 8 over 4 over 2 5.7 -1.7 7.2 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KNYM7 61 ( 93/152) 100 (173/173) 51 ( 77/152) 35 ( 60/173) 32 ( 49/152) 16 ( 27/173) 9 ( 14/152) over 34 under -10 over 24 over 15 under -7 under -6 under -4 14.3 6.6 12.4 3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSDM7 95 (145/152) 100 (173/173) 86 (131/152) 55 ( 96/173) 16 ( 24/152) 6 ( 11/173) 2 ( 3/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -11 under -5 over 9 over 4 over 3 6.0 -1.4 7.8 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSVM7 51 ( 78/152) 100 (173/173) 42 ( 64/152) 20 ( 35/173) 16 ( 24/152) 8 ( 13/173) 5 ( 8/152) over 44 under -10 over 33 over 30 over 9 over 2 spot-on 0 18.3 15.4 16.8 12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCGK1 90 ( 77/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 74 ( 64/ 86) 52 ( 45/ 86) 16 ( 14/ 86) 9 ( 8/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) over 5 under -10 over 1 under -2 over 9 over 1 under -2 4.3 0.3 4.6 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEVK1 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 66 ( 49/ 74) 35 ( 26/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 8 ( 6/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 9 over 15 over 9 over 2 over 2 8.0 5.1 9.0 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LKCM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 82 (124/152) 68 (155/229) 24 ( 37/152) 10 ( 23/229) 3 ( 5/152) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -18 over 1 spot-on 0 over 2 5.7 -4.9 7.2 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSCK1 97 (149/154) 100 (156/156) 73 (112/154) 40 ( 63/156) 20 ( 31/154) 3 ( 5/156) 0 ( 0/154) under -2 under -10 over 2 over 10 over 5 over 7 over 5 5.9 2.4 6.8 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MYVM7 98 (149/152) 100 (252/252) 79 (120/152) 71 (179/252) 47 ( 72/152) 27 ( 69/252) 18 ( 27/152) under -3 under -10 under -4 under -21 under -22 under -17 under -13 12.9 -12.9 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NAPM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 59 ( 44/ 74) 38 ( 28/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 16 over 12 over 5 over 5 spot-on 0 8.1 5.3 9.6 5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVZM7 94 (145/154) 100 (249/249) 73 (113/154) 53 (133/249) 29 ( 45/154) 13 ( 32/249) 6 ( 10/154) over 1 under -10 over 2 under -3 under -4 under -3 under -1 3.4 -2.6 4.4 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSMK1 87 ( 75/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 76 ( 65/ 86) 62 ( 53/ 86) 26 ( 22/ 86) 17 ( 15/ 86) 13 ( 11/ 86) over 8 under -10 under -1 under -12 under -1 under -7 under -8 6.7 -4.4 6.2 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTTM7 93 (141/152) 100 (229/229) 80 (122/152) 62 (142/229) 16 ( 24/152) 2 ( 4/229) 0 ( 0/152) over 2 under -10 under -5 under -12 over 9 over 8 over 5 7.3 -0.4 8.8 -2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PATM7 91 (140/154) 100 (249/249) 82 (126/154) 53 (133/249) 35 ( 54/154) 12 ( 31/249) 8 ( 13/154) over 4 under -10 under -7 under -3 under -10 under -2 under -3 5.6 -4.4 6.4 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PKVM7 87 ( 47/ 54) 100 ( 54/ 54) 63 ( 34/ 54) 26 ( 14/ 54) 11 ( 6/ 54) 2 ( 1/ 54) 0 ( 0/ 54) over 8 under -10 over 12 over 24 over 14 over 8 over 5 11.6 8.7 13.6 9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRIM7 95 (146/154) 100 (249/249) 73 (113/154) 48 (120/249) 23 ( 36/154) 17 ( 42/249) 11 ( 17/154) spot-on 0 under -10 over 2 over 2 over 2 under -7 under -6 4.1 -2.4 4.6 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 82 (124/152) 59 (136/229) 24 ( 36/152) 7 ( 16/229) 5 ( 7/152) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -9 over 1 over 3 spot-on 0 4.6 -3.4 6.0 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SJSM7 91 ( 67/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 70 ( 52/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 22 ( 16/ 74) 9 ( 7/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 4 under -10 over 5 over 14 over 3 over 1 over 5 6.0 3.1 6.6 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMHM7 98 (149/152) 100 (252/252) 93 (142/152) 83 (209/252) 63 ( 96/152) 37 ( 94/252) 20 ( 31/152) under -3 under -10 under -18 under -33 under -38 under -27 under -15 20.6 -20.6 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNZM7 96 (148/154) 100 (249/249) 71 (109/154) 50 (125/249) 32 ( 49/154) 14 ( 35/249) 10 ( 16/154) under -1 under -10 over 4 spot-on 0 under -7 under -4 under -5 4.4 -3.3 5.0 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSTM7 89 (135/152) 100 (252/252) 68 (103/152) 56 (141/252) 30 ( 45/152) 11 ( 27/252) 7 ( 11/152) over 6 under -10 over 7 under -6 under -5 under -1 under -2 5.3 -1.6 5.8 -3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TNGK1 94 (144/154) 100 (156/156) 60 ( 92/154) 21 ( 32/156) 3 ( 4/154) 3 ( 4/156) 1 ( 1/154) over 1 under -10 over 15 over 29 over 22 over 7 over 4 12.6 9.7 16.6 12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPOK1 97 ( 83/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 80 ( 69/ 86) 56 ( 48/ 86) 19 ( 16/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) 2 ( 2/ 86) under -2 under -10 under -5 under -6 over 6 over 3 over 3 5.0 -1.6 6.0 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TTZM7 96 (148/154) 100 (249/249) 78 (120/154) 61 (153/249) 29 ( 45/154) 22 ( 55/249) 12 ( 19/154) under -1 under -10 under -3 under -11 under -4 under -12 under -7 6.9 -6.9 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URHM7 92 (129/140) 100 (140/140) 77 (108/140) 65 ( 91/140) 29 ( 41/140) 9 ( 13/140) 7 ( 10/140) over 3 under -10 under -2 under -15 under -4 over 1 under -2 5.3 -4.1 6.4 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VLYM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 80 (122/152) 55 (126/229) 20 ( 31/152) 7 ( 17/229) 3 ( 4/152) under -2 under -10 under -5 under -5 over 5 over 3 over 2 4.6 -1.7 5.6 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WVYM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 62 ( 46/ 74) 41 ( 30/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) 11 ( 8/ 74) 8 ( 6/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 13 over 9 over 5 under -1 under -3 7.1 3.1 7.6 3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================