WFO - FSD net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AKRI4 93 (148/159) 100 (261/261) 77 (122/159) 60 (157/261) 32 ( 51/159) 11 ( 29/261) 6 ( 9/159) over 2 under -10 under -2 under -10 under -7 under -1 under -1 4.7 -4.1 6.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALTI4 91 (144/159) 100 (261/261) 75 (120/159) 58 (151/261) 34 ( 54/159) 16 ( 43/261) 14 ( 22/159) over 4 under -10 spot-on 0 under -8 under -9 under -6 under -9 6.6 -5.4 6.6 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRKS2 92 (146/159) 100 (261/261) 72 (115/159) 63 (164/261) 30 ( 47/159) 17 ( 44/261) 9 ( 14/159) over 3 under -10 over 3 under -13 under -5 under -7 under -4 6.4 -4.7 7.6 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHKI4 82 (130/159) 100 (261/261) 73 (116/159) 49 (128/261) 35 ( 55/159) 19 ( 49/261) 19 ( 31/159) over 13 under -10 over 2 over 1 under -10 under -9 under -14 8.4 -3.9 6.4 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COSS2 94 (150/159) 100 (261/261) 81 (129/159) 68 (178/261) 40 ( 64/159) 26 ( 67/261) 18 ( 29/159) over 1 under -10 under -6 under -18 under -15 under -16 under -13 11.3 -11.0 13.0 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRRI4 82 (131/159) 100 (261/261) 69 (109/159) 57 (149/261) 33 ( 52/159) 21 ( 55/261) 14 ( 23/159) over 13 under -10 over 6 under -7 under -8 under -11 under -9 9.1 -3.7 8.4 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DERS2 89 (142/159) 100 (261/261) 74 (118/159) 64 (168/261) 33 ( 53/159) 22 ( 57/261) 10 ( 16/159) over 6 under -10 over 1 under -14 under -8 under -12 under -5 8.0 -6.0 9.0 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORS2 84 (138/165) 100 (274/274) 79 (130/165) 72 (196/274) 44 ( 72/165) 23 ( 63/274) 11 ( 18/165) over 11 under -10 under -4 under -22 under -19 under -13 under -6 12.1 -9.0 13.6 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOKI4 84 (133/159) 100 (261/261) 74 (117/159) 48 (126/261) 25 ( 40/159) 15 ( 38/261) 8 ( 12/159) over 11 under -10 over 1 over 2 spot-on 0 under -5 under -3 4.6 -0.6 3.6 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HURS2 81 (133/165) 100 (274/274) 76 (126/165) 70 (191/274) 38 ( 62/165) 19 ( 52/274) 7 ( 11/165) over 14 under -10 under -1 under -20 under -13 under -9 under -2 9.9 -5.9 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HWDI4 94 ( 94/100) 100 (100/100) 77 ( 77/100) 56 ( 56/100) 41 ( 41/100) 24 ( 24/100) 16 ( 16/100) over 1 under -10 under -2 under -6 under -16 under -14 under -11 8.6 -8.3 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JMEI4 92 (147/159) 100 (261/261) 80 (127/159) 67 (174/261) 40 ( 64/159) 18 ( 48/261) 16 ( 26/159) over 3 under -10 under -5 under -17 under -15 under -8 under -11 9.9 -9.0 11.0 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMS2 77 (127/165) 100 (274/274) 72 (119/165) 67 (183/274) 36 ( 59/165) 16 ( 45/274) 6 ( 10/165) over 18 under -10 over 3 under -17 under -11 under -6 under -1 9.4 -3.4 9.4 -8.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMRI4 72 (115/159) 100 (261/261) 58 ( 92/159) 28 ( 74/261) 25 ( 40/159) 9 ( 23/261) 10 ( 16/159) over 23 under -10 over 17 over 22 spot-on 0 over 1 under -5 11.1 6.9 10.0 6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNNI4 88 (140/159) 100 (261/261) 77 (122/159) 65 (169/261) 30 ( 47/159) 23 ( 60/261) 13 ( 21/159) over 7 under -10 under -2 under -15 under -5 under -13 under -8 8.6 -6.6 9.0 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LUVM5 87 (138/159) 100 (261/261) 76 (121/159) 64 (167/261) 40 ( 63/159) 20 ( 53/261) 9 ( 15/159) over 8 under -10 under -1 under -14 under -15 under -10 under -4 8.9 -6.6 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MIFI4 87 ( 68/ 78) 100 ( 78/ 78) 78 ( 61/ 78) 47 ( 37/ 78) 14 ( 11/ 78) 5 ( 4/ 78) 3 ( 2/ 78) over 8 under -10 under -3 over 3 over 11 over 5 over 2 6.0 2.3 6.4 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRLI4 40 ( 63/159) 100 (261/261) 28 ( 45/159) 16 ( 42/261) 6 ( 9/159) 1 ( 3/261) 0 ( 0/159) over 55 under -10 over 47 over 34 over 19 over 9 over 5 25.6 22.7 23.8 19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTVS2 92 (152/165) 100 (274/274) 90 (148/165) 79 (216/274) 45 ( 74/165) 26 ( 72/274) 12 ( 20/165) over 3 under -10 under -15 under -29 under -20 under -16 under -7 14.3 -13.4 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PKRS2 98 (161/164) 100 (273/273) 97 (159/164) 92 (250/273) 74 (122/164) 59 (160/273) 44 ( 72/164) under -3 under -10 under -22 under -42 under -49 under -49 under -39 30.6 -30.6 34.4 -34.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RAPI4 81 (129/159) 100 (250/250) 70 (112/159) 57 (143/250) 29 ( 46/159) 18 ( 44/250) 8 ( 12/159) over 14 under -10 over 5 under -7 under -4 under -8 under -3 7.3 -1.9 6.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RKVI4 76 (121/159) 100 (261/261) 67 (106/159) 64 (166/261) 26 ( 42/159) 22 ( 58/261) 9 ( 15/159) over 19 under -10 over 8 under -14 under -1 under -12 under -4 9.7 -2.0 9.0 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCOS2 86 (142/165) 100 (274/274) 81 (134/165) 76 (207/274) 45 ( 73/164) 19 ( 51/274) 10 ( 16/164) over 9 under -10 under -6 under -26 under -20 under -9 under -5 12.1 -9.6 14.2 -14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFLS2 69 (110/159) 100 (261/261) 64 (102/159) 51 (134/261) 27 ( 43/159) 12 ( 31/261) 6 ( 10/159) over 26 under -10 over 11 under -1 under -2 under -2 under -1 7.6 3.0 5.2 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLI4 63 (100/159) 100 (261/261) 50 ( 80/159) 28 ( 74/261) 23 ( 37/159) 5 ( 13/261) 4 ( 6/159) over 32 under -10 over 25 over 22 over 2 over 5 over 1 13.9 11.0 12.8 8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIFS2 94 (149/159) 100 (261/261) 82 (131/159) 78 (203/261) 42 ( 66/159) 31 ( 80/261) 21 ( 33/159) over 1 under -10 under -7 under -28 under -17 under -21 under -16 14.3 -14.0 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIOI4 87 (139/159) 100 (261/261) 74 (118/159) 71 (185/261) 45 ( 71/159) 39 (102/261) 22 ( 35/159) over 8 under -10 over 1 under -21 under -20 under -29 under -17 15.1 -12.6 16.2 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPOI4 96 (153/159) 100 (185/185) 89 (142/159) 77 (142/185) 48 ( 77/159) 27 ( 50/185) 16 ( 26/159) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -27 under -23 under -17 under -11 14.7 -14.7 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPWI4 78 (124/159) 100 (261/261) 72 (115/159) 54 (140/261) 26 ( 42/159) 11 ( 29/261) 9 ( 14/159) over 17 under -10 over 3 under -4 under -1 under -1 under -4 5.7 0.0 3.8 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSCN1 77 ( 57/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 65 ( 48/ 74) 41 ( 30/ 74) 26 ( 19/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 14 ( 10/ 74) over 18 under -10 over 10 over 9 under -1 under -6 under -9 9.0 1.6 7.2 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STUI4 51 ( 81/159) 100 (260/260) 45 ( 71/159) 20 ( 53/260) 22 ( 35/159) 7 ( 19/260) 9 ( 14/159) over 44 under -10 over 30 over 30 over 3 over 3 under -4 17.7 13.7 15.2 11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXCI4 69 (109/159) 100 (261/261) 57 ( 91/159) 31 ( 82/261) 20 ( 32/159) 11 ( 28/261) 8 ( 13/159) over 26 under -10 over 18 over 19 over 5 under -1 under -3 11.7 7.7 10.6 6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXFS2 90 (143/159) 100 (261/261) 77 (123/159) 64 (167/261) 25 ( 40/159) 18 ( 47/261) 3 ( 4/159) over 5 under -10 under -2 under -14 spot-on 0 under -8 over 2 5.9 -3.9 6.8 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERS2 86 (141/164) 100 (273/273) 76 (125/164) 68 (187/273) 38 ( 62/164) 16 ( 44/273) 7 ( 11/164) over 9 under -10 under -1 under -18 under -13 under -6 under -2 8.4 -5.9 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRPS2 89 (146/164) 100 (273/273) 83 (136/164) 75 (205/273) 43 ( 71/164) 24 ( 65/273) 13 ( 22/164) over 6 under -10 under -8 under -25 under -18 under -14 under -8 12.7 -11.0 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YNNS2 87 (142/164) 100 (189/189) 82 (134/164) 69 (131/189) 41 ( 67/164) 17 ( 32/189) 8 ( 13/164) over 8 under -10 under -7 under -19 under -16 under -7 under -3 10.0 -7.7 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================