WFO - GID net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALDN1 45 ( 70/154) 100 (196/196) 42 ( 64/154) 34 ( 67/196) 9 ( 14/154) 5 ( 9/196) 0 ( 0/154) over 50 under -10 over 33 over 16 over 16 over 5 over 5 19.3 16.4 16.0 12.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVN1 54 ( 84/155) 100 (185/185) 43 ( 66/155) 21 ( 38/185) 16 ( 25/155) 11 ( 21/185) 12 ( 19/155) over 41 under -10 over 32 over 29 over 9 under -1 under -7 18.4 13.3 16.2 11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLTK1 85 (123/144) 100 (144/144) 78 (112/144) 60 ( 86/144) 22 ( 32/144) 3 ( 4/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 10 under -10 under -3 under -10 over 3 over 7 over 4 6.7 0.1 6.6 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAMN1 48 ( 75/155) 100 (159/159) 46 ( 71/155) 40 ( 64/159) 23 ( 36/155) 13 ( 21/159) 10 ( 16/155) over 47 under -10 over 29 over 10 over 2 under -3 under -5 15.1 10.0 10.8 5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DWEN1 88 (133/152) 100 (228/228) 67 (102/152) 52 (118/228) 18 ( 28/152) 7 ( 15/228) 1 ( 2/152) over 7 under -10 over 8 under -2 over 7 over 3 over 4 5.9 2.4 6.0 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FULN1 78 (119/153) 100 (220/220) 45 ( 69/153) 33 ( 73/220) 12 ( 19/153) 13 ( 29/220) 4 ( 6/153) over 17 under -10 over 30 over 17 over 13 under -3 over 1 13.0 9.3 14.6 9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDEK1 97 (148/153) 100 (197/197) 91 (139/153) 68 (134/197) 34 ( 52/153) 18 ( 35/197) 6 ( 9/153) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -18 under -9 under -8 under -1 9.1 -9.1 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GELN1 89 (136/153) 100 (220/220) 86 (131/153) 70 (155/220) 52 ( 79/153) 39 ( 85/220) 24 ( 36/153) over 6 under -10 under -11 under -20 under -27 under -29 under -19 17.4 -15.7 19.4 -19.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GEON1 95 (146/153) 100 (174/174) 69 (105/153) 45 ( 79/174) 20 ( 30/153) 7 ( 12/174) 4 ( 6/153) spot-on 0 under -10 over 6 over 5 over 5 over 3 over 1 4.3 1.4 5.8 1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GIDN1 60 ( 29/ 48) 100 ( 48/ 48) 52 ( 25/ 48) 31 ( 15/ 48) 15 ( 7/ 48) 0 ( 0/ 48) 0 ( 0/ 48) over 35 under -10 over 23 over 19 over 10 over 10 over 5 16.0 13.1 14.4 10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRIN1 92 (141/154) 100 (169/169) 89 (137/154) 71 (120/169) 52 ( 80/154) 30 ( 51/169) 19 ( 30/154) over 3 under -10 under -14 under -21 under -27 under -20 under -14 15.6 -14.7 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GUIN1 89 (136/152) 100 (155/155) 76 (116/152) 54 ( 84/155) 34 ( 52/152) 14 ( 22/155) 3 ( 5/152) over 6 under -10 under -1 under -4 under -9 under -4 over 2 5.1 -2.9 5.6 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDYN1 88 (133/152) 100 (155/155) 69 (105/152) 46 ( 72/155) 26 ( 39/152) 10 ( 16/155) 6 ( 9/152) over 7 under -10 over 6 over 4 under -1 spot-on 0 under -1 4.1 0.7 4.2 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KEAN1 86 (133/154) 100 (170/170) 81 (125/154) 65 (110/170) 43 ( 66/154) 27 ( 46/170) 23 ( 35/154) over 9 under -10 under -6 under -15 under -18 under -17 under -18 13.3 -10.7 13.2 -13.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORNN1 69 (107/155) 100 (159/159) 59 ( 92/155) 43 ( 69/159) 26 ( 40/155) 14 ( 22/159) 10 ( 16/155) over 26 under -10 over 16 over 7 under -1 under -4 under -5 9.9 4.1 7.6 1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSBK1 90 (130/144) 100 (144/144) 82 (118/144) 64 ( 92/144) 28 ( 41/144) 4 ( 6/144) 1 ( 2/144) over 5 under -10 under -7 under -14 under -3 over 6 over 4 7.0 -2.7 8.0 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OVTN1 89 (115/129) 100 (129/129) 83 (107/129) 61 ( 79/129) 36 ( 47/129) 26 ( 33/129) 20 ( 26/129) over 6 under -10 under -8 under -11 under -11 under -16 under -15 11.0 -9.3 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PTIK1 98 (152/155) 100 (158/158) 90 (140/155) 72 (113/158) 27 ( 42/155) 6 ( 10/158) 3 ( 5/155) under -3 under -10 under -15 under -22 under -2 over 4 over 2 8.3 -6.6 10.6 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVRN1 93 (141/151) 100 (153/153) 85 (129/151) 73 (111/153) 46 ( 69/151) 20 ( 31/153) 13 ( 20/151) over 2 under -10 under -10 under -23 under -21 under -10 under -8 12.0 -11.4 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SKTK1 99 (152/153) 100 (197/197) 99 (151/153) 88 (173/197) 61 ( 93/153) 30 ( 60/197) 16 ( 24/153) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -38 under -36 under -20 under -11 20.4 -20.4 25.6 -25.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMIN1 97 (149/153) 100 (220/220) 76 (117/153) 51 (112/220) 32 ( 49/153) 14 ( 31/220) 8 ( 13/153) under -2 under -10 under -1 under -1 under -7 under -4 under -3 4.0 -4.0 4.6 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPLN1 99 (151/153) 100 (220/220) 93 (142/153) 74 (163/220) 50 ( 77/153) 38 ( 83/220) 24 ( 36/153) under -4 under -10 under -18 under -24 under -25 under -28 under -19 18.3 -18.3 21.0 -21.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPUN1 95 (145/153) 100 (220/220) 85 (130/153) 72 (158/220) 46 ( 71/153) 38 ( 83/220) 27 ( 41/153) spot-on 0 under -10 under -10 under -22 under -21 under -28 under -22 16.1 -16.1 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STMN1 86 (134/155) 100 (185/185) 82 (127/155) 61 (112/185) 29 ( 45/155) 16 ( 29/185) 10 ( 16/155) over 9 under -10 under -7 under -11 under -4 under -6 under -5 7.4 -4.9 7.6 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWTN1 92 (140/153) 100 (220/220) 71 (109/153) 36 ( 80/220) 12 ( 18/153) 5 ( 10/220) 4 ( 6/153) over 3 under -10 over 4 over 14 over 13 over 5 over 1 7.1 4.3 9.2 5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRK1 97 (151/155) 100 (159/159) 88 (136/155) 64 (102/159) 36 ( 56/155) 18 ( 28/159) 10 ( 16/155) under -2 under -10 under -13 under -14 under -11 under -8 under -5 9.0 -9.0 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODK1 87 (130/149) 100 (149/149) 85 (126/149) 62 ( 93/149) 37 ( 55/149) 9 ( 14/149) 1 ( 2/149) over 8 under -10 under -10 under -12 under -12 over 1 over 4 8.1 -4.4 9.0 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================