WFO - GLD net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEKN1 35 ( 55/155) 100 (159/159) 34 ( 53/155) 25 ( 40/159) 10 ( 16/155) 4 ( 7/159) 2 ( 3/155) over 60 under -10 over 41 over 25 over 15 over 6 over 3 22.9 20.0 19.4 15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BENN1 53 ( 82/155) 100 (185/185) 51 ( 79/155) 56 (103/185) 42 ( 65/155) 37 ( 68/185) 30 ( 46/155) over 42 under -10 over 24 under -6 under -17 under -27 under -25 21.6 -2.7 16.8 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CDBK1 97 (150/155) 100 (185/185) 95 (147/155) 62 (114/185) 45 ( 70/155) 17 ( 32/185) 9 ( 14/155) under -2 under -10 under -20 under -12 under -20 under -7 under -4 10.7 -10.7 13.8 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CULN1 88 (136/155) 100 (159/159) 84 (130/155) 71 (113/159) 55 ( 85/155) 34 ( 54/159) 28 ( 43/155) over 7 under -10 under -9 under -21 under -30 under -24 under -23 17.7 -15.7 18.8 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAIN1 59 ( 91/155) 100 (185/185) 57 ( 88/155) 51 ( 95/185) 34 ( 53/155) 24 ( 44/185) 20 ( 31/155) over 36 under -10 over 18 under -1 under -9 under -14 under -15 14.7 0.7 10.4 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDLK1 2 ( 3/155) 100 (185/185) 2 ( 3/155) 2 ( 3/185) 0 ( 0/155) 0 ( 0/185) 0 ( 0/155) over 93 under -10 over 73 over 48 over 25 over 10 over 5 37.7 34.9 33.2 29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MCKN1 97 (150/155) 100 (159/159) 91 (141/155) 65 (103/159) 37 ( 58/155) 19 ( 31/159) 15 ( 24/155) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -15 under -12 under -9 under -10 10.6 -10.6 12.4 -12.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MKRN1 73 (113/155) 100 (159/159) 71 (110/155) 56 ( 89/159) 38 ( 59/155) 19 ( 31/159) 12 ( 19/155) over 22 under -10 over 4 under -6 under -13 under -9 under -7 10.1 -2.7 8.4 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCRK1 82 (127/155) 100 (185/185) 73 (113/155) 62 (115/185) 32 ( 50/155) 15 ( 27/185) 7 ( 11/155) over 13 under -10 over 2 under -12 under -7 under -5 under -2 7.3 -3.0 7.2 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OKYK1 73 (112/153) 100 (197/197) 65 ( 99/153) 46 ( 91/197) 22 ( 33/153) 14 ( 27/197) 9 ( 14/153) over 22 under -10 over 10 over 4 over 3 under -4 under -4 8.1 3.0 6.2 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STTN1 71 (110/155) 100 (159/159) 70 (109/155) 58 ( 93/159) 46 ( 72/155) 36 ( 57/159) 29 ( 45/155) over 24 under -10 over 5 under -8 under -21 under -26 under -24 16.9 -8.6 14.0 -12.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================