Forecast Group - GRAND (GRA) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHTI4 91 (126/138) 100 (233/233) 68 ( 94/138) 58 (136/233) 38 ( 53/138) 22 ( 51/233) 12 ( 17/138) over 4 under -10 over 7 under -8 under -13 under -12 under -7 8.7 -5.6 10.0 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHZM7 98 (135/138) 100 (233/233) 80 (110/138) 57 (133/233) 34 ( 47/138) 15 ( 34/233) 9 ( 13/138) under -3 under -10 under -5 under -7 under -9 under -5 under -4 6.1 -6.1 7.2 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DVSI4 98 (135/138) 100 (233/233) 79 (109/138) 63 (147/233) 26 ( 36/138) 12 ( 28/233) 7 ( 9/138) under -3 under -10 under -4 under -13 under -1 under -2 under -2 5.0 -5.0 6.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GAZM7 100 (138/138) 100 (233/233) 90 (124/138) 67 (157/233) 40 ( 55/138) 18 ( 42/233) 15 ( 21/138) under -5 under -10 under -15 under -17 under -15 under -8 under -10 11.4 -11.4 13.0 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MOLI4 86 (118/138) 100 (233/233) 70 ( 96/138) 57 (132/233) 28 ( 38/138) 13 ( 31/233) 7 ( 10/138) over 9 under -10 over 5 under -7 under -3 under -3 under -2 5.6 -1.6 5.6 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVZM7 94 (130/138) 100 (233/233) 74 (102/138) 55 (129/233) 32 ( 44/138) 14 ( 32/233) 7 ( 10/138) over 1 under -10 over 1 under -5 under -7 under -4 under -2 4.3 -3.7 5.4 -5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PATM7 91 (125/138) 100 (233/233) 83 (115/138) 54 (126/233) 36 ( 50/138) 13 ( 30/233) 9 ( 13/138) over 4 under -10 under -8 under -4 under -11 under -3 under -4 6.3 -5.1 7.2 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRIM7 96 (132/138) 100 (233/233) 76 (105/138) 50 (116/233) 24 ( 33/138) 18 ( 42/233) 12 ( 17/138) under -1 under -10 under -1 spot-on 0 over 1 under -8 under -7 4.0 -3.7 4.0 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRMI4 98 (135/138) 100 (233/233) 72 ( 99/138) 48 (112/233) 22 ( 31/138) 17 ( 39/233) 6 ( 8/138) under -3 under -10 over 3 over 2 over 3 under -7 under -1 4.1 -1.9 5.0 -1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNZM7 97 (134/138) 100 (233/233) 73 (101/138) 51 (119/233) 34 ( 47/138) 15 ( 35/233) 12 ( 16/138) under -2 under -10 over 2 under -1 under -9 under -5 under -7 5.1 -4.6 5.4 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TTZM7 99 (136/138) 100 (233/233) 81 (112/138) 63 (147/233) 30 ( 41/138) 24 ( 55/233) 14 ( 19/138) under -4 under -10 under -6 under -13 under -5 under -14 under -9 8.7 -8.7 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================