WFO - ICT net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELWK1 100 (153/153) 100 (197/197) 80 (123/153) 49 ( 96/197) 21 ( 32/153) 4 ( 7/197) 1 ( 2/153) under -5 under -10 under -5 over 1 over 4 over 6 over 4 5.0 -0.7 5.2 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LINK1 94 (135/144) 100 (144/144) 86 (124/144) 68 ( 98/144) 22 ( 32/144) 6 ( 8/144) 4 ( 6/144) over 1 under -10 under -11 under -18 over 3 over 4 over 1 6.9 -4.3 9.2 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNSK1 96 (138/144) 100 (144/144) 88 (126/144) 63 ( 90/144) 27 ( 39/144) 6 ( 8/144) 1 ( 1/144) under -1 under -10 under -13 under -13 under -2 over 4 over 4 6.7 -4.4 8.4 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTRK1 92 (133/144) 100 (144/144) 82 (118/144) 60 ( 86/144) 23 ( 33/144) 7 ( 10/144) 1 ( 2/144) over 3 under -10 under -7 under -10 over 2 over 3 over 4 5.6 -2.1 6.4 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCMK1 79 (114/144) 100 (144/144) 51 ( 74/144) 24 ( 35/144) 5 ( 7/144) 2 ( 3/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 16 under -10 over 24 over 26 over 20 over 8 over 4 15.4 12.6 17.6 13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSLK1 97 (149/153) 100 (159/159) 84 (129/153) 58 ( 92/159) 29 ( 44/153) 9 ( 15/159) 3 ( 5/153) under -2 under -10 under -9 under -8 under -4 over 1 over 2 5.1 -4.3 6.4 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUSK1 90 (138/153) 100 (197/197) 78 (120/153) 60 (118/197) 28 ( 43/153) 12 ( 23/197) 7 ( 11/153) over 5 under -10 under -3 under -10 under -3 under -2 under -2 5.0 -3.6 5.6 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLNK1 92 (143/155) 100 (158/158) 88 (136/155) 62 ( 98/158) 22 ( 34/155) 4 ( 7/158) 1 ( 2/155) over 3 under -10 under -13 under -12 over 3 over 6 over 4 7.3 -2.7 8.8 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================