Forecast Group - JAMES (JAM) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATNS2 74 (110/148) 100 (257/257) 69 (102/148) 69 (178/257) 39 ( 58/148) 24 ( 62/257) 9 ( 13/148) over 21 under -10 over 6 under -19 under -14 under -14 under -4 12.6 -4.9 12.6 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMBS2 78 (116/148) 100 (257/257) 74 (109/148) 72 (184/257) 45 ( 66/148) 25 ( 64/257) 11 ( 16/148) over 17 under -10 over 1 under -22 under -20 under -15 under -6 13.0 -7.9 13.6 -13.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORS2 85 (126/148) 100 (257/257) 80 (118/148) 72 (184/257) 43 ( 64/148) 23 ( 60/257) 11 ( 16/148) over 10 under -10 under -5 under -22 under -18 under -13 under -6 12.0 -9.1 13.6 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GCEN8 83 (123/148) 100 (257/257) 80 (118/148) 79 (202/257) 48 ( 71/148) 28 ( 71/257) 17 ( 25/148) over 12 under -10 under -5 under -29 under -23 under -18 under -12 15.6 -12.1 17.0 -17.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HURS2 81 (120/148) 100 (257/257) 76 (113/148) 69 (178/257) 36 ( 53/148) 20 ( 51/257) 7 ( 10/148) over 14 under -10 under -1 under -19 under -11 under -10 under -2 9.6 -5.6 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMS2 78 (115/148) 100 (257/257) 72 (107/148) 67 (171/257) 34 ( 51/148) 17 ( 43/257) 6 ( 9/148) over 17 under -10 over 3 under -17 under -9 under -7 under -1 9.1 -3.4 9.2 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAMN8 89 (131/148) 100 (257/257) 85 (126/148) 85 (219/257) 67 ( 99/148) 36 ( 93/257) 20 ( 30/148) over 6 under -10 under -10 under -35 under -42 under -26 under -15 20.6 -18.9 24.6 -24.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTVS2 92 (136/148) 100 (257/257) 91 (134/148) 79 (204/257) 44 ( 65/148) 28 ( 71/257) 13 ( 19/148) over 3 under -10 under -16 under -29 under -19 under -18 under -8 14.7 -13.9 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PGEN8 96 (142/148) 100 (257/257) 91 (134/148) 89 (229/257) 65 ( 96/148) 40 (102/257) 25 ( 37/148) under -1 under -10 under -16 under -39 under -40 under -30 under -20 22.3 -22.3 27.0 -27.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PKRS2 99 (145/147) 100 (256/256) 97 (143/147) 92 (235/256) 76 (112/147) 60 (153/256) 44 ( 65/147) under -4 under -10 under -22 under -42 under -51 under -50 under -39 31.1 -31.1 35.0 -35.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RFDS2 76 (113/148) 100 (257/257) 71 (105/148) 66 (169/257) 39 ( 58/148) 21 ( 53/257) 9 ( 14/148) over 19 under -10 over 4 under -16 under -14 under -11 under -4 11.1 -4.6 11.0 -9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCOS2 87 (129/148) 100 (257/257) 82 (121/148) 75 (194/257) 46 ( 68/147) 20 ( 51/257) 11 ( 16/147) over 8 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -21 under -10 under -6 12.4 -10.1 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFDS2 73 (108/148) 100 (257/257) 66 ( 97/148) 66 (170/257) 37 ( 55/148) 24 ( 61/257) 9 ( 13/148) over 22 under -10 over 9 under -16 under -12 under -14 under -4 12.4 -3.6 12.2 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERS2 86 (127/147) 100 (256/256) 77 (113/147) 71 (182/256) 41 ( 61/147) 17 ( 44/256) 7 ( 11/147) over 9 under -10 under -2 under -21 under -16 under -7 under -2 9.6 -7.0 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRPS2 89 (131/147) 100 (256/256) 84 (123/147) 77 (198/256) 48 ( 70/147) 25 ( 65/256) 15 ( 22/147) over 6 under -10 under -9 under -27 under -23 under -15 under -10 14.3 -12.6 16.8 -16.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WESS2 82 (122/148) 100 (257/257) 78 (116/148) 66 (170/257) 41 ( 61/148) 23 ( 60/257) 13 ( 19/148) over 13 under -10 under -3 under -16 under -16 under -13 under -8 11.3 -7.6 11.6 -11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YNNS2 88 (129/147) 100 (172/172) 84 (123/147) 71 (122/172) 43 ( 63/147) 19 ( 32/172) 9 ( 13/147) over 7 under -10 under -9 under -21 under -18 under -9 under -4 11.1 -9.1 13.4 -13.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================