Forecast Group - KANSAS (KSR) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVUK1 87 (111/127) 100 (127/127) 72 ( 91/127) 43 ( 55/127) 13 ( 17/127) 2 ( 2/127) 0 ( 0/127) over 8 under -10 over 3 over 7 over 12 over 8 over 5 7.6 4.7 8.0 4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHPK1 96 (132/138) 100 (140/140) 88 (121/138) 59 ( 83/140) 31 ( 43/138) 7 ( 10/140) 5 ( 7/138) under -1 under -10 under -13 under -9 under -6 over 3 spot-on 0 6.0 -5.1 8.2 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DELK1 100 (138/138) 100 (140/140) 88 (121/138) 66 ( 92/140) 30 ( 41/138) 16 ( 23/140) 10 ( 14/138) under -5 under -10 under -13 under -16 under -5 under -6 under -5 8.6 -8.6 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DSOK1 83 (105/127) 100 (127/127) 63 ( 80/127) 42 ( 53/127) 17 ( 22/127) 2 ( 3/127) 2 ( 3/127) over 12 under -10 over 12 over 8 over 8 over 8 over 3 8.7 5.9 9.2 5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ESTK1 88 (122/138) 100 (140/140) 64 ( 89/138) 29 ( 41/140) 12 ( 17/138) 1 ( 1/140) 0 ( 0/138) over 7 under -10 over 11 over 21 over 13 over 9 over 5 10.9 8.0 12.8 8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTRK1 85 (108/127) 100 (127/127) 65 ( 82/127) 38 ( 48/127) 7 ( 9/127) 1 ( 1/127) 0 ( 0/127) over 10 under -10 over 10 over 12 over 18 over 9 over 5 10.6 7.7 11.8 7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JNCK1 91 (113/124) 100 (124/124) 80 ( 99/124) 56 ( 70/124) 26 ( 32/124) 4 ( 5/124) 2 ( 3/124) over 4 under -10 under -5 under -6 under -1 over 6 over 3 5.0 -1.3 5.6 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAWK1 87 (111/127) 100 (127/127) 75 ( 95/127) 40 ( 51/127) 16 ( 20/127) 6 ( 8/127) 4 ( 5/127) over 8 under -10 spot-on 0 over 10 over 9 over 4 over 1 6.0 3.1 6.6 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCPK1 90 (114/127) 100 (127/127) 73 ( 93/127) 46 ( 58/127) 22 ( 28/127) 5 ( 6/127) 0 ( 0/127) over 5 under -10 over 2 over 4 over 3 over 5 over 5 4.9 2.0 4.8 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LISK1 85 (117/138) 100 (140/140) 75 (103/138) 51 ( 72/140) 30 ( 42/138) 16 ( 23/140) 6 ( 8/138) over 10 under -10 spot-on 0 under -1 under -5 under -6 under -1 4.7 -1.9 4.4 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LWRK1 91 (116/127) 100 (127/127) 88 (112/127) 80 (101/127) 51 ( 65/127) 20 ( 26/127) 8 ( 10/127) over 4 under -10 under -13 under -30 under -26 under -10 under -3 13.7 -12.6 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MHKK1 86 (109/127) 100 (127/127) 76 ( 97/127) 52 ( 66/127) 18 ( 23/127) 3 ( 4/127) 0 ( 0/127) over 9 under -10 under -1 under -2 over 7 over 7 over 5 5.9 2.1 5.4 0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSCK1 96 (133/138) 100 (140/140) 72 ( 99/138) 42 ( 59/140) 22 ( 31/138) 4 ( 5/140) 0 ( 0/138) under -1 under -10 over 3 over 8 over 3 over 6 over 5 5.1 2.0 6.0 2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MWCK1 76 ( 74/ 98) 100 ( 98/ 98) 64 ( 63/ 98) 45 ( 44/ 98) 34 ( 33/ 98) 15 ( 15/ 98) 7 ( 7/ 98) over 19 under -10 over 11 over 5 under -9 under -5 under -2 8.7 1.3 8.0 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PXCK1 96 (132/138) 100 (140/140) 73 (101/138) 50 ( 70/140) 24 ( 33/138) 6 ( 9/140) 6 ( 8/138) under -1 under -10 over 2 spot-on 0 over 1 over 4 under -1 2.7 -0.7 3.4 -0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSSK1 89 (123/138) 100 (140/140) 74 (102/138) 46 ( 65/140) 28 ( 38/138) 10 ( 14/140) 6 ( 8/138) over 6 under -10 over 1 over 4 under -3 spot-on 0 under -1 3.6 -0.4 3.6 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TNGK1 93 (128/138) 100 (140/140) 62 ( 86/138) 23 ( 32/140) 3 ( 4/138) 3 ( 4/140) 1 ( 1/138) over 2 under -10 over 13 over 27 over 22 over 7 over 4 12.1 9.3 15.8 11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOPK1 99 (137/138) 100 (140/140) 80 (110/138) 50 ( 70/140) 30 ( 41/138) 13 ( 18/140) 5 ( 7/138) under -4 under -10 under -5 spot-on 0 under -5 under -3 spot-on 0 3.9 -3.9 4.6 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPAK1 89 (113/127) 100 (127/127) 76 ( 97/127) 49 ( 62/127) 26 ( 33/127) 8 ( 10/127) 0 ( 0/127) over 6 under -10 under -1 over 1 under -1 over 2 over 5 3.7 0.3 3.0 -1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WMGK1 73 ( 93/127) 100 (127/127) 57 ( 73/127) 33 ( 42/127) 7 ( 9/127) 2 ( 3/127) 0 ( 0/127) over 22 under -10 over 18 over 17 over 18 over 8 over 5 14.0 11.1 14.2 10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================