WFO - LBF net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDYN1 71 (109/154) 100 (169/169) 66 (102/154) 50 ( 84/169) 31 ( 47/154) 17 ( 29/169) 14 ( 21/154) over 24 under -10 over 9 spot-on 0 under -6 under -7 under -9 9.3 0.1 6.4 -2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EWIN1 97 (150/154) 100 (208/208) 97 (150/154) 87 (181/208) 64 ( 99/154) 41 ( 86/208) 25 ( 38/154) under -2 under -10 under -22 under -37 under -39 under -31 under -20 23.0 -23.0 27.8 -27.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEWN1 78 (113/144) 100 (150/150) 76 (109/144) 71 (106/150) 60 ( 86/144) 51 ( 77/150) 47 ( 67/144) over 17 under -10 under -1 under -21 under -35 under -41 under -42 23.9 -19.0 21.6 -21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LSON1 78 (112/144) 100 (150/150) 70 (101/144) 63 ( 95/150) 55 ( 79/144) 45 ( 68/150) 38 ( 55/144) over 17 under -10 over 5 under -13 under -30 under -35 under -33 20.4 -14.1 18.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPSN1 88 (128/145) 100 (169/169) 83 (121/145) 70 (118/169) 47 ( 68/145) 35 ( 59/169) 26 ( 37/145) over 7 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -22 under -25 under -21 16.1 -14.1 17.0 -17.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPTN1 87 (125/144) 100 (150/150) 83 (119/144) 77 (115/150) 71 (102/144) 55 ( 82/150) 45 ( 65/144) over 8 under -10 under -8 under -27 under -46 under -45 under -40 26.3 -24.0 27.2 -27.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PALN1 88 (137/155) 100 (159/159) 85 (132/155) 78 (124/159) 64 ( 99/155) 45 ( 71/159) 32 ( 49/155) over 7 under -10 under -10 under -28 under -39 under -35 under -27 22.3 -20.3 24.4 -24.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PASN1 96 (149/155) 100 (185/185) 90 (139/155) 79 (146/185) 63 ( 97/155) 39 ( 72/185) 28 ( 44/155) under -1 under -10 under -15 under -29 under -38 under -29 under -23 20.7 -20.7 24.2 -24.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSON1 60 ( 88/146) 100 (170/170) 52 ( 76/146) 45 ( 77/170) 27 ( 39/146) 21 ( 36/170) 13 ( 19/146) over 35 under -10 over 23 over 5 under -2 under -11 under -8 13.4 4.6 10.2 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPKN1 95 (149/157) 100 (219/219) 96 (149/156) 92 (202/219) 84 (131/156) 62 (135/219) 47 ( 74/156) spot-on 0 under -10 under -21 under -42 under -59 under -52 under -42 32.3 -32.3 36.8 -36.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================