Forecast Group - LWRDAK (LDT) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTPS2 83 (117/141) 100 (225/225) 74 (104/141) 64 (144/225) 27 ( 38/141) 25 ( 57/225) 13 ( 19/141) over 12 under -10 over 1 under -14 under -2 under -15 under -8 8.9 -5.1 8.4 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KDKS2 95 (134/141) 100 (179/179) 86 (121/141) 66 (118/179) 36 ( 51/141) 22 ( 39/179) 12 ( 17/141) spot-on 0 under -10 under -11 under -16 under -11 under -12 under -7 9.6 -9.6 12.0 -12.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MIDS2 74 (104/141) 100 (225/225) 64 ( 90/141) 56 (127/225) 27 ( 38/141) 22 ( 50/225) 10 ( 14/141) over 21 under -10 over 11 under -6 under -2 under -12 under -5 9.6 -0.4 8.2 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OACS2 92 (130/141) 100 (224/224) 83 (117/141) 77 (172/224) 35 ( 49/141) 33 ( 75/224) 9 ( 12/141) over 3 under -10 under -8 under -27 under -10 under -23 under -4 12.1 -11.3 15.6 -15.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPKN1 94 (133/141) 100 (203/203) 95 (133/140) 92 (186/203) 84 (117/140) 61 (124/203) 47 ( 66/140) over 1 under -10 under -20 under -42 under -59 under -51 under -42 32.1 -31.9 36.4 -36.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERN1 96 (134/140) 100 (224/224) 85 (119/140) 70 (157/224) 52 ( 73/140) 34 ( 77/224) 21 ( 29/140) under -1 under -10 under -10 under -20 under -27 under -24 under -16 15.4 -15.4 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRDN1 96 (134/140) 100 (224/224) 94 (132/140) 91 (204/224) 78 (109/140) 55 (123/224) 48 ( 67/140) under -1 under -10 under -19 under -41 under -53 under -45 under -43 30.3 -30.3 33.6 -33.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHRS2 96 (135/141) 100 (179/179) 89 (125/141) 59 (105/179) 21 ( 30/141) 11 ( 19/179) 4 ( 6/141) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -9 over 4 under -1 over 1 5.7 -4.3 7.6 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================