Forecast Group - LWRSMO (LSH) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ADAK1 99 (127/128) 100 (128/128) 89 (114/128) 72 ( 92/128) 43 ( 55/128) 9 ( 12/128) 4 ( 5/128) under -4 under -10 under -14 under -22 under -18 over 1 over 1 10.0 -9.4 13.0 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLTK1 84 (107/128) 100 (128/128) 77 ( 99/128) 63 ( 80/128) 24 ( 31/128) 3 ( 4/128) 1 ( 1/128) over 11 under -10 under -2 under -13 over 1 over 7 over 4 6.9 -0.3 6.6 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENTK1 75 ( 96/128) 100 (128/128) 55 ( 71/128) 31 ( 40/128) 6 ( 8/128) 1 ( 1/128) 1 ( 1/128) over 20 under -10 over 20 over 19 over 19 over 9 over 4 14.4 11.6 15.4 11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LINK1 98 (125/128) 100 (128/128) 89 (114/128) 73 ( 94/128) 25 ( 32/128) 6 ( 8/128) 5 ( 6/128) under -3 under -10 under -14 under -23 spot-on 0 over 4 spot-on 0 7.7 -6.6 10.2 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNSK1 95 (122/128) 100 (128/128) 88 (113/128) 65 ( 83/128) 30 ( 38/128) 6 ( 8/128) 1 ( 1/128) spot-on 0 under -10 under -13 under -15 under -5 over 4 over 4 7.3 -5.0 9.4 -7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MPSK1 91 (116/128) 100 (128/128) 86 (110/128) 74 ( 95/128) 33 ( 42/128) 9 ( 11/128) 4 ( 5/128) over 4 under -10 under -11 under -24 under -8 over 1 over 1 8.4 -6.7 10.8 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTRK1 91 (117/128) 100 (128/128) 83 (106/128) 61 ( 78/128) 24 ( 31/128) 8 ( 10/128) 2 ( 2/128) over 4 under -10 under -8 under -11 over 1 over 2 over 3 5.6 -2.7 6.4 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCMK1 83 (106/128) 100 (128/128) 58 ( 74/128) 27 ( 35/128) 5 ( 7/128) 2 ( 3/128) 1 ( 1/128) over 12 under -10 over 17 over 23 over 20 over 8 over 4 13.4 10.6 15.6 11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLSK1 80 (102/128) 100 (128/128) 70 ( 89/128) 44 ( 56/128) 13 ( 16/128) 2 ( 2/128) 1 ( 1/128) over 15 under -10 over 5 over 6 over 12 over 8 over 4 8.6 5.7 8.2 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSBK1 89 (114/128) 100 (128/128) 81 (104/128) 64 ( 82/128) 30 ( 38/128) 5 ( 6/128) 2 ( 2/128) over 6 under -10 under -6 under -14 under -5 over 5 over 3 7.0 -3.0 8.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PTIK1 98 (136/139) 100 (142/142) 92 (128/139) 71 (101/142) 29 ( 41/139) 7 ( 10/142) 4 ( 5/139) under -3 under -10 under -17 under -21 under -4 over 3 over 1 8.4 -7.3 11.0 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLNK1 92 (128/139) 100 (142/142) 88 (122/139) 65 ( 92/142) 23 ( 32/139) 5 ( 7/142) 1 ( 2/139) over 3 under -10 under -13 under -15 over 2 over 5 over 4 7.4 -3.4 9.0 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TSCK1 98 (125/128) 100 (128/128) 88 (112/128) 66 ( 85/128) 15 ( 19/128) 4 ( 5/128) 2 ( 3/128) under -3 under -10 under -13 under -16 over 10 over 6 over 3 8.7 -3.3 11.0 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODK1 86 (115/133) 100 (133/133) 83 (111/133) 62 ( 83/133) 37 ( 49/133) 11 ( 14/133) 2 ( 2/133) over 9 under -10 under -8 under -12 under -12 under -1 over 3 7.9 -4.4 8.6 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================