WFO - LSX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMSM7 81 ( 60/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 64 ( 47/ 74) 41 ( 30/ 74) 15 ( 11/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 14 under -10 over 11 over 9 over 10 over 5 over 5 9.1 6.3 9.0 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRNM7 61 ( 45/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 54 ( 40/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 34 under -10 over 21 over 14 over 9 over 5 over 5 14.0 11.1 11.8 7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JCMM7 93 (142/152) 100 (229/229) 78 (118/152) 62 (141/229) 30 ( 45/152) 10 ( 22/229) 5 ( 8/152) over 2 under -10 under -3 under -12 under -5 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 4.6 -4.0 6.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JFFM7 85 ( 63/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 70 ( 52/ 74) 39 ( 29/ 74) 14 ( 10/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 10 under -10 over 5 over 11 over 11 over 7 over 5 8.4 5.6 8.8 4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MOAM7 89 ( 64/ 72) 100 ( 72/ 72) 79 ( 57/ 72) 60 ( 43/ 72) 32 ( 23/ 72) 17 ( 12/ 72) 6 ( 4/ 72) over 6 under -10 under -4 under -10 under -7 under -7 under -1 6.4 -4.7 7.6 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RIFM7 99 (150/152) 100 (229/229) 91 (139/152) 64 (146/229) 28 ( 42/152) 15 ( 35/229) 11 ( 16/152) under -4 under -10 under -16 under -14 under -3 under -5 under -6 8.3 -8.3 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCLM7 91 ( 67/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 74 ( 55/ 74) 47 ( 35/ 74) 12 ( 9/ 74) 1 ( 1/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 4 under -10 over 1 over 3 over 13 over 9 over 5 6.4 3.6 7.2 3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STTM7 96 ( 71/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 93 ( 69/ 74) 84 ( 62/ 74) 51 ( 38/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 4 ( 3/ 74) under -1 under -10 under -18 under -34 under -26 under -6 over 1 13.7 -13.4 18.8 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHGM7 95 ( 70/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 78 ( 58/ 74) 50 ( 37/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 4 ( 3/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 spot-on 0 over 9 over 6 over 5 4.7 1.0 5.6 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPHM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 91 (139/152) 82 (188/229) 49 ( 74/152) 30 ( 68/229) 20 ( 31/152) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -32 under -24 under -20 under -15 17.0 -17.0 20.4 -20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================