Forecast Group - LOUP (LUP) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FULN1 75 (103/137) 100 (204/204) 43 ( 59/137) 32 ( 66/204) 9 ( 13/137) 13 ( 26/204) 3 ( 4/137) over 20 under -10 over 32 over 18 over 16 under -3 over 2 14.4 10.7 15.8 10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GELN1 88 (120/137) 100 (204/204) 85 (117/137) 71 (145/204) 52 ( 71/137) 41 ( 83/204) 26 ( 35/137) over 7 under -10 under -10 under -21 under -27 under -31 under -21 18.1 -16.1 19.8 -19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GEON1 95 (130/137) 100 (158/158) 67 ( 92/137) 47 ( 74/158) 20 ( 28/137) 8 ( 12/158) 4 ( 6/137) spot-on 0 under -10 over 8 over 3 over 5 over 2 over 1 4.1 1.3 5.6 1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMIN1 97 (133/137) 100 (204/204) 77 (106/137) 51 (105/204) 34 ( 47/137) 15 ( 30/204) 9 ( 13/137) under -2 under -10 under -2 under -1 under -9 under -5 under -4 4.7 -4.7 5.4 -5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPLN1 99 (135/137) 100 (204/204) 96 (132/137) 75 (154/204) 51 ( 70/137) 39 ( 80/204) 26 ( 35/137) under -4 under -10 under -21 under -25 under -26 under -29 under -21 19.4 -19.4 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPUN1 94 (129/137) 100 (204/204) 85 (117/137) 73 (149/204) 47 ( 65/137) 38 ( 78/204) 29 ( 40/137) over 1 under -10 under -10 under -23 under -22 under -28 under -24 16.9 -16.6 18.6 -18.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWTN1 92 (126/137) 100 (204/204) 70 ( 96/137) 38 ( 77/204) 12 ( 17/137) 5 ( 10/204) 4 ( 6/137) over 3 under -10 over 5 over 12 over 13 over 5 over 1 7.0 4.1 9.0 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================