Forecast Group - MCYGNE (MDC) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRTK1 90 ( 53/ 59) 100 ( 59/ 59) 76 ( 45/ 59) 56 ( 33/ 59) 34 ( 20/ 59) 20 ( 12/ 59) 10 ( 6/ 59) over 5 under -10 under -1 under -6 under -9 under -10 under -5 6.6 -5.1 7.2 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCGK1 96 ( 67/ 70) 100 ( 70/ 70) 81 ( 57/ 70) 61 ( 43/ 70) 20 ( 14/ 70) 11 ( 8/ 70) 9 ( 6/ 70) under -1 under -10 under -6 under -11 over 5 under -1 under -4 5.4 -4.0 6.6 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNDK1 88 (121/137) 100 (165/165) 70 ( 96/137) 51 ( 84/165) 27 ( 37/137) 14 ( 23/165) 10 ( 14/137) over 7 under -10 over 5 under -1 under -2 under -4 under -5 4.9 -1.4 4.4 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNEK1 80 (110/137) 100 (165/165) 65 ( 89/137) 42 ( 69/165) 22 ( 30/137) 7 ( 11/165) 4 ( 6/137) over 15 under -10 over 10 over 8 over 3 over 3 over 1 7.1 4.3 6.8 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSMK1 84 ( 59/ 70) 100 ( 70/ 70) 71 ( 50/ 70) 56 ( 39/ 70) 24 ( 17/ 70) 19 ( 13/ 70) 14 ( 10/ 70) over 11 under -10 over 4 under -6 over 1 under -9 under -9 7.1 -2.6 6.0 -4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTWK1 96 ( 67/ 70) 100 ( 70/ 70) 84 ( 59/ 70) 56 ( 39/ 70) 24 ( 17/ 70) 14 ( 10/ 70) 10 ( 7/ 70) under -1 under -10 under -9 under -6 over 1 under -4 under -5 5.1 -4.9 6.0 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QNMK1 56 ( 39/ 70) 100 ( 70/ 70) 49 ( 34/ 70) 31 ( 22/ 70) 16 ( 11/ 70) 3 ( 2/ 70) 0 ( 0/ 70) over 39 under -10 over 26 over 19 over 9 over 7 over 5 16.4 13.6 14.2 10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDNK1 90 (123/137) 100 (164/164) 71 ( 97/137) 45 ( 73/164) 26 ( 35/137) 8 ( 13/164) 4 ( 6/137) over 5 under -10 over 4 over 5 under -1 over 2 over 1 4.0 0.9 4.4 0.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================