Forecast Group - MILK (MIL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCHM8 85 (147/173) 100 (187/187) 79 (137/173) 72 (134/187) 52 ( 90/173) 26 ( 49/187) 11 ( 19/173) over 10 under -10 under -4 under -22 under -27 under -16 under -6 13.6 -10.7 15.8 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCMM8 94 (162/173) 100 (187/187) 92 (160/173) 86 (161/187) 51 ( 89/173) 32 ( 60/187) 27 ( 46/173) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -36 under -26 under -22 under -22 19.1 -18.9 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BSMM8 95 (165/173) 100 (187/187) 92 (160/173) 80 (149/187) 62 (107/173) 45 ( 84/187) 37 ( 64/173) spot-on 0 under -10 under -17 under -30 under -37 under -35 under -32 23.0 -23.0 25.8 -25.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CCMM8 94 (162/173) 100 (187/187) 92 (160/173) 79 (148/187) 64 (111/173) 45 ( 84/187) 39 ( 67/173) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -29 under -39 under -35 under -34 23.6 -23.3 26.0 -26.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DMRM8 88 (153/173) 100 (187/187) 85 (147/173) 76 (142/187) 63 (109/173) 44 ( 83/187) 31 ( 53/173) over 7 under -10 under -10 under -26 under -38 under -34 under -26 21.6 -19.6 23.6 -23.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERNM8 89 (154/173) 100 (187/187) 88 (153/173) 83 (155/187) 64 (110/173) 36 ( 68/187) 31 ( 53/173) over 6 under -10 under -13 under -33 under -39 under -26 under -26 21.9 -20.1 24.2 -24.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLWM8 78 (135/173) 100 (246/246) 70 (121/173) 56 (137/246) 39 ( 67/173) 21 ( 51/246) 16 ( 27/173) over 17 under -10 over 5 under -6 under -14 under -11 under -11 10.6 -4.3 9.2 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRLM8 70 (121/173) 100 (246/246) 61 (105/173) 62 (152/246) 38 ( 66/173) 33 ( 80/246) 16 ( 27/173) over 25 under -10 over 14 under -12 under -13 under -23 under -11 15.4 -4.3 14.4 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HVRM8 63 (109/173) 100 (246/246) 55 ( 95/173) 48 (117/246) 40 ( 70/173) 36 ( 88/246) 24 ( 42/173) over 32 under -10 over 20 over 2 under -15 under -26 under -19 17.7 -2.3 14.6 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGEM8 75 (129/173) 100 (187/187) 73 (127/173) 70 (131/187) 56 ( 97/173) 30 ( 56/187) 24 ( 41/173) over 20 under -10 over 2 under -20 under -31 under -20 under -19 17.4 -11.1 16.6 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MALM8 87 (151/173) 100 (246/246) 84 (145/173) 60 (148/246) 54 ( 93/173) 25 ( 61/246) 23 ( 40/173) over 8 under -10 under -9 under -10 under -29 under -15 under -18 14.1 -11.9 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NSHM8 83 (143/173) 100 (246/246) 76 (132/173) 72 (178/246) 51 ( 88/173) 34 ( 83/246) 22 ( 38/173) over 12 under -10 under -1 under -22 under -26 under -24 under -17 16.0 -12.6 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLRM8 94 (162/173) 100 (246/246) 92 (159/173) 89 (218/246) 72 (125/173) 48 (117/246) 34 ( 58/173) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -39 under -47 under -38 under -29 25.9 -25.6 30.2 -30.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SACM8 84 (145/173) 100 (239/239) 82 (141/173) 65 (155/239) 47 ( 81/173) 26 ( 61/239) 19 ( 33/173) over 11 under -10 under -7 under -15 under -22 under -16 under -14 13.6 -10.4 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMBM8 98 (169/173) 100 (224/224) 97 (167/173) 93 (208/224) 86 (148/173) 75 (167/224) 55 ( 95/173) under -3 under -10 under -22 under -43 under -61 under -65 under -50 36.3 -36.3 40.2 -40.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TMPM8 82 (141/173) 100 (246/246) 75 (129/173) 67 (166/246) 50 ( 86/173) 27 ( 66/246) 17 ( 30/173) over 13 under -10 spot-on 0 under -17 under -25 under -17 under -12 13.4 -9.7 13.8 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================