Forecast Group - UPRMOT (MTA) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABRN1 91 (125/137) 100 (237/237) 72 ( 99/137) 63 (149/237) 38 ( 52/137) 14 ( 34/237) 7 ( 10/137) over 4 under -10 over 3 under -13 under -13 under -4 under -2 7.0 -5.0 8.6 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGYM7 93 (127/136) 100 (236/236) 75 (102/136) 64 (152/236) 40 ( 55/136) 11 ( 26/236) 10 ( 13/136) over 2 under -10 spot-on 0 under -14 under -15 under -1 under -5 6.7 -6.1 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATCI4 93 (127/137) 100 (237/237) 76 (104/137) 55 (130/237) 27 ( 37/137) 7 ( 16/237) 7 ( 10/137) over 2 under -10 under -1 under -5 under -2 over 3 under -2 3.6 -2.1 4.2 -3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDFI4 92 (125/136) 100 (236/236) 69 ( 94/136) 67 (159/236) 50 ( 68/136) 33 ( 77/236) 19 ( 26/136) over 3 under -10 over 6 under -17 under -25 under -23 under -14 14.0 -11.4 16.2 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRLM7 84 (114/136) 100 (236/236) 68 ( 93/136) 41 ( 96/236) 31 ( 42/136) 8 ( 18/236) 1 ( 2/136) over 11 under -10 over 7 over 9 under -6 over 2 over 4 7.0 2.4 6.8 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FFXM7 94 (129/137) 100 (237/237) 78 (107/137) 49 (115/237) 17 ( 23/137) 1 ( 3/237) 1 ( 1/137) over 1 under -10 under -3 over 1 over 8 over 9 over 4 5.1 1.4 6.2 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLLN1 96 (132/137) 100 (237/237) 73 (100/137) 51 (122/237) 39 ( 54/137) 16 ( 37/237) 12 ( 17/137) under -1 under -10 over 2 under -1 under -14 under -6 under -7 5.9 -5.3 6.6 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBLN1 96 (131/137) 100 (237/237) 76 (104/137) 56 (132/237) 35 ( 48/137) 18 ( 43/237) 9 ( 12/137) under -1 under -10 under -1 under -6 under -10 under -8 under -4 5.7 -5.7 7.0 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HMBI4 98 (134/137) 100 (237/237) 78 (107/137) 53 (125/237) 20 ( 27/137) 5 ( 11/237) 3 ( 4/137) under -3 under -10 under -3 under -3 over 5 over 5 over 2 4.4 -1.0 5.2 -1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNKI4 93 (127/137) 100 (237/237) 64 ( 88/137) 47 (112/237) 24 ( 33/137) 6 ( 15/237) 4 ( 6/137) over 2 under -10 over 11 over 3 over 1 over 4 over 1 4.6 1.7 5.8 1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ICLI4 99 (135/137) 100 (237/237) 88 (120/137) 65 (153/237) 45 ( 61/136) 25 ( 59/237) 13 ( 17/136) under -4 under -10 under -13 under -15 under -20 under -15 under -8 12.1 -12.1 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGNI4 92 (126/137) 100 (237/237) 69 ( 95/137) 47 (112/237) 25 ( 34/137) 11 ( 26/237) 7 ( 9/137) over 3 under -10 over 6 over 3 spot-on 0 under -1 under -2 3.6 -0.1 4.0 -0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MYVM7 98 (133/136) 100 (236/236) 79 (108/136) 72 (170/236) 49 ( 66/136) 28 ( 66/236) 19 ( 26/136) under -3 under -10 under -4 under -22 under -24 under -18 under -14 13.6 -13.6 15.6 -15.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PSGI4 93 (127/137) 100 (237/237) 76 (104/137) 58 (137/237) 42 ( 58/137) 21 ( 50/237) 21 ( 29/137) over 2 under -10 under -1 under -8 under -17 under -11 under -16 9.3 -8.7 9.4 -9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDOI4 93 (128/137) 100 (237/237) 77 (106/137) 60 (143/237) 26 ( 35/137) 6 ( 15/237) 4 ( 5/137) over 2 under -10 under -2 under -10 under -1 over 4 over 1 4.3 -2.3 5.4 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPI4 97 (133/137) 100 (237/237) 72 ( 99/137) 46 (108/237) 20 ( 28/137) 8 ( 18/237) 4 ( 6/137) under -2 under -10 over 3 over 4 over 5 over 2 over 1 3.9 0.4 4.8 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMHM7 98 (133/136) 100 (236/236) 93 (126/136) 83 (196/236) 63 ( 86/136) 37 ( 87/236) 21 ( 29/136) under -3 under -10 under -18 under -33 under -38 under -27 under -16 20.7 -20.7 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNCK1 94 (129/137) 100 (238/238) 73 (100/137) 47 (113/238) 29 ( 40/137) 19 ( 45/238) 11 ( 15/137) over 1 under -10 over 2 over 3 under -4 under -9 under -6 5.0 -3.3 5.6 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSTM7 88 (120/136) 100 (236/236) 68 ( 93/136) 56 (133/236) 32 ( 43/136) 11 ( 26/236) 8 ( 11/136) over 7 under -10 over 7 under -6 under -7 under -1 under -3 5.9 -1.9 6.2 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UION1 98 (134/137) 100 (237/237) 81 (111/137) 62 (148/237) 39 ( 53/137) 15 ( 35/237) 4 ( 6/137) under -3 under -10 under -6 under -12 under -14 under -5 over 1 7.3 -7.0 9.4 -9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================