Forecast Group - LWRMOT (MTB) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLVM7 96 (130/136) 100 (213/213) 78 (106/136) 57 (122/213) 31 ( 42/136) 4 ( 8/213) 0 ( 0/136) under -1 under -10 under -3 under -7 under -6 over 6 over 5 5.4 -2.3 6.4 -4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONM7 99 (135/136) 100 (213/213) 91 (124/136) 72 (154/213) 31 ( 42/136) 6 ( 12/213) 4 ( 6/136) under -4 under -10 under -16 under -22 under -6 over 4 over 1 9.0 -7.6 11.6 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVCM7 50 ( 50/100) 100 (100/100) 40 ( 40/100) 31 ( 31/100) 20 ( 20/100) 11 ( 11/100) 8 ( 8/100) over 45 under -10 over 35 over 19 over 5 under -1 under -3 16.9 12.9 14.0 9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAXM7 97 (132/136) 100 (213/213) 85 (115/136) 57 (121/213) 12 ( 16/136) 3 ( 7/213) 2 ( 3/136) under -2 under -10 under -10 under -7 over 13 over 7 over 3 7.4 -0.9 9.4 -1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FYTM7 96 (131/136) 100 (213/213) 74 (100/136) 52 (110/213) 11 ( 15/136) 1 ( 3/213) 1 ( 2/136) under -1 under -10 over 1 under -2 over 14 over 9 over 4 5.9 2.1 7.2 2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZLM7 97 (132/136) 100 (213/213) 90 (123/136) 76 (161/213) 44 ( 60/136) 25 ( 54/213) 14 ( 19/136) under -2 under -10 under -15 under -26 under -19 under -15 under -9 13.7 -13.7 17.0 -17.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JCMM7 95 (129/136) 100 (213/213) 84 (114/136) 65 (138/213) 31 ( 42/136) 10 ( 22/213) 6 ( 8/136) spot-on 0 under -10 under -9 under -15 under -6 spot-on 0 under -1 5.9 -5.9 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMM7 99 (134/136) 100 (213/213) 89 (121/136) 63 (135/213) 29 ( 40/136) 15 ( 32/213) 12 ( 16/136) under -4 under -10 under -14 under -13 under -4 under -5 under -7 8.1 -8.1 9.2 -9.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAYM7 41 ( 56/136) 100 (157/157) 40 ( 54/136) 25 ( 39/157) 17 ( 23/136) 9 ( 14/157) 4 ( 5/136) over 54 under -10 over 35 over 25 over 8 over 1 over 1 19.1 16.3 15.8 11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KBRM7 93 (126/136) 100 (213/213) 87 (118/136) 69 (146/213) 28 ( 38/136) 8 ( 16/213) 7 ( 10/136) over 2 under -10 under -12 under -19 under -3 over 2 under -2 7.1 -6.0 9.2 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCCM7 99 (134/136) 100 (213/213) 92 (125/136) 67 (142/213) 16 ( 22/136) 8 ( 17/213) 4 ( 6/136) under -4 under -10 under -17 under -17 over 9 over 2 over 1 8.6 -5.1 11.0 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCTM7 98 (133/136) 100 (157/157) 85 (116/136) 61 ( 95/157) 17 ( 23/136) 6 ( 9/157) 3 ( 4/136) under -3 under -10 under -10 under -11 over 8 over 4 over 2 6.9 -2.9 8.6 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSDM7 96 (131/136) 100 (157/157) 90 (123/136) 59 ( 92/157) 15 ( 21/136) 6 ( 9/157) 2 ( 3/136) under -1 under -10 under -15 under -9 over 10 over 4 over 3 7.4 -2.6 9.6 -4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSVM7 46 ( 62/136) 100 (157/157) 38 ( 51/136) 18 ( 28/157) 15 ( 20/136) 7 ( 11/157) 6 ( 8/136) over 49 under -10 over 37 over 32 over 10 over 3 under -1 20.3 17.1 18.4 14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LKCM7 98 (133/136) 100 (213/213) 87 (118/136) 70 (149/213) 24 ( 33/136) 9 ( 20/213) 1 ( 2/136) under -3 under -10 under -12 under -20 over 1 over 1 over 4 7.3 -5.6 8.8 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTTM7 97 (132/136) 100 (213/213) 87 (118/136) 65 (139/213) 15 ( 21/136) 2 ( 4/213) 0 ( 0/136) under -2 under -10 under -12 under -15 over 10 over 8 over 5 8.9 -2.3 11.0 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RBXM7 93 ( 82/ 88) 100 ( 88/ 88) 89 ( 78/ 88) 73 ( 64/ 88) 48 ( 42/ 88) 20 ( 18/ 88) 13 ( 11/ 88) over 2 under -10 under -14 under -23 under -23 under -10 under -8 12.9 -12.3 16.0 -16.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICM7 97 (132/136) 100 (213/213) 83 (113/136) 62 (132/213) 26 ( 35/136) 8 ( 16/213) 5 ( 7/136) under -2 under -10 under -8 under -12 under -1 over 2 spot-on 0 5.0 -4.4 6.6 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RIFM7 99 (134/136) 100 (213/213) 91 (124/136) 62 (132/213) 27 ( 37/136) 15 ( 33/213) 10 ( 14/136) under -4 under -10 under -16 under -12 under -2 under -5 under -5 7.7 -7.7 9.0 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VLYM7 99 (134/136) 100 (213/213) 84 (114/136) 58 (124/213) 23 ( 31/136) 8 ( 17/213) 3 ( 4/136) under -4 under -10 under -9 under -8 over 2 over 2 over 2 5.3 -3.6 6.2 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPHM7 97 (132/136) 100 (213/213) 91 (124/136) 84 (178/213) 49 ( 66/136) 31 ( 67/213) 23 ( 31/136) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -34 under -24 under -21 under -18 17.9 -17.9 21.0 -21.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================