WFO - OAX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABRN1 88 (135/153) 100 (253/253) 69 (105/153) 60 (152/253) 35 ( 54/153) 14 ( 35/253) 7 ( 10/153) over 7 under -10 over 6 under -10 under -10 under -4 under -2 7.0 -3.3 8.0 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASLN1 96 (148/154) 100 (169/169) 84 (130/154) 65 (110/169) 42 ( 64/154) 12 ( 20/169) 5 ( 8/154) under -1 under -10 under -9 under -15 under -17 under -2 spot-on 0 7.7 -7.7 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARN1 90 (137/152) 100 (228/228) 72 (110/152) 43 ( 97/228) 20 ( 30/152) 7 ( 16/228) 5 ( 7/152) over 5 under -10 over 3 over 7 over 5 over 3 spot-on 0 4.7 1.9 5.6 1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEAN1 91 (139/152) 100 (228/228) 75 (114/152) 50 (115/228) 23 ( 35/152) 13 ( 29/228) 4 ( 6/152) over 4 under -10 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 over 2 under -3 over 1 2.9 -0.9 3.0 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLAN1 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 69 ( 51/ 74) 53 ( 39/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 28 ( 21/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 6 under -3 under -11 under -18 under -15 10.3 -6.0 9.6 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRON1 74 ( 54/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 55 ( 40/ 73) 29 ( 21/ 73) 18 ( 13/ 73) 8 ( 6/ 73) 5 ( 4/ 73) over 21 under -10 over 20 over 21 over 7 over 2 spot-on 0 11.6 8.7 12.0 8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLBN1 92 (142/154) 100 (196/196) 80 (123/154) 48 ( 95/196) 20 ( 31/154) 6 ( 12/196) 3 ( 5/154) over 3 under -10 under -5 over 2 over 5 over 4 over 2 4.4 0.1 5.2 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRTN1 88 (134/152) 100 (228/228) 74 (113/152) 51 (117/228) 27 ( 41/152) 7 ( 17/228) 2 ( 3/152) over 7 under -10 over 1 under -1 under -2 over 3 over 3 3.9 0.1 3.4 -1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DCTN1 72 ( 53/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 59 ( 44/ 74) 46 ( 34/ 74) 30 ( 22/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) 15 ( 11/ 74) over 23 under -10 over 16 over 4 under -5 under -10 under -10 11.1 1.1 9.0 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNCN1 91 (140/154) 100 (169/169) 86 (132/154) 68 (115/169) 48 ( 74/154) 28 ( 47/169) 17 ( 26/154) over 4 under -10 under -11 under -18 under -23 under -18 under -12 13.7 -12.6 16.0 -16.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRGN1 81 (123/152) 100 (228/228) 66 (101/152) 40 ( 92/228) 14 ( 21/152) 5 ( 12/228) 1 ( 1/152) over 14 under -10 over 9 over 10 over 11 over 5 over 4 9.0 6.1 9.0 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLLN1 97 (148/153) 100 (253/253) 73 (112/153) 51 (130/253) 35 ( 54/153) 15 ( 37/253) 11 ( 17/153) under -2 under -10 over 2 under -1 under -10 under -5 under -6 5.1 -4.6 5.6 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRBN1 95 (145/152) 100 (228/228) 70 (106/152) 53 (120/228) 23 ( 35/152) 9 ( 21/228) 5 ( 7/152) spot-on 0 under -10 over 5 under -3 over 2 over 1 spot-on 0 3.0 -0.7 4.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRNN1 99 (152/154) 100 (196/196) 88 (136/154) 67 (131/196) 34 ( 52/154) 11 ( 21/196) 5 ( 7/154) under -4 under -10 under -13 under -17 under -9 under -1 spot-on 0 7.7 -7.7 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBLN1 95 (146/153) 100 (253/253) 76 (116/153) 55 (140/253) 33 ( 51/153) 17 ( 43/253) 8 ( 12/153) spot-on 0 under -10 under -1 under -5 under -8 under -7 under -3 4.9 -4.9 6.2 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HMBI4 95 (145/153) 100 (253/253) 75 (115/153) 51 (130/253) 18 ( 28/153) 5 ( 12/253) 3 ( 4/153) spot-on 0 under -10 spot-on 0 under -1 over 7 over 5 over 2 3.6 0.4 4.6 0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNKI4 90 (138/153) 100 (253/253) 63 ( 96/153) 47 (118/253) 24 ( 37/153) 6 ( 16/253) 5 ( 7/153) over 5 under -10 over 12 over 3 over 1 over 4 spot-on 0 5.0 2.1 6.0 2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ICLI4 98 (150/153) 100 (253/253) 86 (132/153) 63 (160/253) 41 ( 62/152) 24 ( 60/253) 11 ( 17/152) under -3 under -10 under -11 under -13 under -16 under -14 under -6 10.4 -10.4 12.8 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ITHN1 95 (147/154) 100 (196/196) 76 (117/154) 54 (105/196) 14 ( 21/154) 4 ( 7/196) 1 ( 2/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -1 under -4 over 11 over 6 over 4 5.1 0.9 6.4 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCNN1 98 (151/154) 100 (196/196) 90 (139/154) 70 (137/196) 32 ( 50/154) 12 ( 24/196) 5 ( 8/154) under -3 under -10 under -15 under -20 under -7 under -2 spot-on 0 8.1 -8.1 10.8 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LESN1 97 (150/154) 100 (168/168) 91 (140/154) 68 (115/168) 39 ( 60/154) 19 ( 32/168) 12 ( 18/154) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -18 under -14 under -9 under -7 10.9 -10.9 13.4 -13.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGNI4 90 (137/153) 100 (253/253) 69 (106/153) 47 (120/253) 25 ( 38/153) 11 ( 28/253) 7 ( 10/153) over 5 under -10 over 6 over 3 spot-on 0 under -1 under -2 3.9 0.1 4.0 -0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOUN1 98 (151/154) 100 (169/169) 86 (132/154) 67 (114/169) 34 ( 52/154) 15 ( 26/169) 5 ( 8/154) under -3 under -10 under -11 under -17 under -9 under -5 spot-on 0 7.9 -7.9 10.4 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPI4 92 (147/159) 100 (261/261) 76 (121/159) 61 (160/261) 35 ( 55/159) 28 ( 73/261) 23 ( 36/159) over 3 under -10 under -1 under -11 under -10 under -18 under -18 10.1 -9.3 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NBDN1 97 (150/154) 100 (169/169) 90 (138/154) 72 (122/169) 47 ( 72/154) 28 ( 47/169) 14 ( 21/154) under -2 under -10 under -15 under -22 under -22 under -18 under -9 14.0 -14.0 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEBN1 74 ( 54/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 53 ( 39/ 73) 33 ( 24/ 73) 23 ( 17/ 73) 14 ( 10/ 73) 8 ( 6/ 73) over 21 under -10 over 22 over 17 over 2 under -4 under -3 11.3 6.4 11.0 5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFKN1 97 (150/154) 100 (208/208) 90 (139/154) 75 (155/208) 46 ( 71/154) 25 ( 52/208) 17 ( 26/154) under -2 under -10 under -15 under -25 under -21 under -15 under -12 14.3 -14.3 17.2 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NKRN1 95 (141/149) 100 (149/149) 71 (106/149) 53 ( 79/149) 33 ( 49/149) 15 ( 22/149) 4 ( 6/149) spot-on 0 under -10 over 4 under -3 under -8 under -5 over 1 4.4 -3.0 6.0 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLIN1 84 (130/154) 100 (208/208) 60 ( 92/154) 31 ( 64/208) 17 ( 26/154) 10 ( 21/208) 6 ( 9/154) over 11 under -10 over 15 over 19 over 8 spot-on 0 under -1 9.1 6.0 10.4 6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OMHN1 58 ( 42/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 40 ( 29/ 73) 32 ( 23/ 73) 19 ( 14/ 73) 14 ( 10/ 73) 8 ( 6/ 73) over 37 under -10 over 35 over 18 over 6 under -4 under -3 16.1 11.3 14.6 9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLGN1 95 (147/154) 100 (208/208) 88 (136/154) 69 (144/208) 32 ( 50/154) 17 ( 36/208) 6 ( 9/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -13 under -19 under -7 under -7 under -1 8.1 -8.1 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRCN1 95 (146/154) 100 (208/208) 90 (138/154) 72 (150/208) 41 ( 63/154) 23 ( 47/208) 17 ( 26/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -15 under -22 under -16 under -13 under -12 12.6 -12.6 15.2 -15.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PSGI4 92 (140/153) 100 (253/253) 76 (116/153) 58 (147/253) 44 ( 67/153) 23 ( 59/253) 21 ( 32/153) over 3 under -10 under -1 under -8 under -19 under -13 under -16 10.0 -9.1 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PTMN1 59 ( 24/ 41) 100 ( 41/ 41) 34 ( 14/ 41) 15 ( 6/ 41) 5 ( 2/ 41) 0 ( 0/ 41) 0 ( 0/ 41) over 36 under -10 over 41 over 35 over 20 over 10 over 5 22.4 19.6 23.2 19.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDOI4 90 (138/153) 100 (253/253) 75 (114/153) 58 (146/253) 24 ( 37/153) 6 ( 16/253) 3 ( 5/153) over 5 under -10 spot-on 0 under -8 over 1 over 4 over 2 4.3 -0.9 4.6 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPI4 93 (143/153) 100 (253/253) 71 (109/153) 45 (113/253) 19 ( 29/153) 8 ( 19/253) 5 ( 7/153) over 2 under -10 over 4 over 5 over 6 over 2 spot-on 0 4.1 1.3 5.4 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROCN1 97 (149/154) 100 (196/196) 82 (126/154) 66 (130/196) 42 ( 64/154) 19 ( 38/196) 11 ( 17/154) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -16 under -17 under -9 under -6 9.6 -9.6 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RULN1 74 ( 54/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 60 ( 44/ 73) 34 ( 25/ 73) 22 ( 16/ 73) 12 ( 9/ 73) 7 ( 5/ 73) over 21 under -10 over 15 over 16 over 3 under -2 under -2 9.9 5.9 9.2 4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRPN1 97 (147/152) 100 (228/228) 83 (126/152) 65 (149/228) 37 ( 56/152) 22 ( 51/228) 9 ( 13/152) under -2 under -10 under -8 under -15 under -12 under -12 under -4 9.0 -9.0 11.4 -11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWDN1 96 (146/152) 100 (228/228) 83 (126/152) 56 (127/228) 30 ( 45/152) 9 ( 21/228) 6 ( 9/152) under -1 under -10 under -8 under -6 under -5 over 1 under -1 4.6 -4.3 6.0 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWRN1 95 (144/152) 100 (228/228) 83 (126/152) 56 (127/228) 20 ( 30/152) 9 ( 20/228) 4 ( 6/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -8 under -6 over 5 over 1 over 1 4.4 -2.4 6.0 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TURI4 95 (151/159) 100 (261/261) 84 (133/159) 63 (164/261) 39 ( 62/159) 25 ( 64/261) 17 ( 27/159) spot-on 0 under -10 under -9 under -13 under -14 under -15 under -12 10.4 -10.4 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UEHN1 95 (147/154) 100 (208/208) 84 (129/154) 61 (126/208) 28 ( 43/154) 14 ( 29/208) 7 ( 11/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -9 under -11 under -3 under -4 under -2 5.6 -5.6 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UION1 98 (150/153) 100 (253/253) 82 (126/153) 63 (160/253) 39 ( 60/153) 15 ( 38/253) 5 ( 7/153) under -3 under -10 under -7 under -13 under -14 under -5 spot-on 0 7.4 -7.4 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERN1 95 (148/156) 100 (240/240) 83 (130/156) 70 (167/240) 52 ( 81/156) 35 ( 84/240) 22 ( 34/156) spot-on 0 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -27 under -25 under -17 15.3 -15.3 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRDN1 96 (150/156) 100 (240/240) 95 (148/156) 92 (220/240) 79 (124/156) 55 (133/240) 48 ( 75/156) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -42 under -54 under -45 under -43 30.7 -30.7 34.2 -34.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLBN1 89 (135/152) 100 (228/228) 67 (102/152) 47 (107/228) 33 ( 50/152) 11 ( 25/228) 8 ( 12/152) over 6 under -10 over 8 over 3 under -8 under -1 under -3 5.6 -0.7 6.0 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLON1 98 (136/139) 100 (139/139) 90 (125/139) 60 ( 84/139) 22 ( 31/139) 6 ( 9/139) 1 ( 1/139) under -3 under -10 under -15 under -10 over 3 over 4 over 4 7.0 -3.9 8.4 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPNN1 95 (147/154) 100 (208/208) 92 (141/154) 72 (150/208) 40 ( 62/154) 22 ( 45/208) 9 ( 14/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -17 under -22 under -15 under -12 under -4 11.4 -11.4 15.2 -15.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRN1 95 (146/154) 100 (208/208) 79 (122/154) 53 (110/208) 21 ( 33/154) 14 ( 30/208) 6 ( 9/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -4 under -3 over 4 under -4 under -1 3.7 -2.6 5.0 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================